Vice President and Presidential candidate is interviewed by CBS News’s 60 Minutes, October 8, 2024
EA on Times Radio: US Presidential Election — What is the Electoral College?
I joined the Saudi outlet Al Arabiya TV on Tuesday to analyze latest developments in the US Presidential election.
I summarize the state of the “toss-up” contest. Then I review Kamala Harris’s interview with CBS News’s 60 Minutes, including her positions on gun control, immigration, and Israel’s open-ended wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
I contrast this with Donald Trump’s sudden withdrawal from a sit-down with 60 Minutes: “Simply put, he is frightened.” I dissect his false bluster that “a war never started when he was President” as I explain why foreign policy is usually not the issue that decides a US election.
Watch from 23:31
If you get a Harris Administration, you know the US will continue the line of defending Israeli security. But there may be a shift, as Harris somewhat differed from Joe Biden, on focusing on civilians in Gaza.
With Donald Trump, you have no clue what he is going to do with regard to policy, because he doesn’t have one.
Trump is in a better polling spot now than he was against Clinton or Biden: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/12/polls-trump-vs-harris-biden-clinton/75532448007/
” If polls are any guide – and there are many questions about them – Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is in better shape now than he was at this time in 2020 and in his winning White House campaign of 2016.”
Trump makes gains as poll figures trigger anxiety for Harris campaign: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/12/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polls
“Tightening poll figures have triggered nervousness and anxiety in Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, with Donald Trump making gains in the states where it matters most as the election race enters its climactic final phase. Amid a dramatic news cycle that has seen the US hit by two destructive hurricanes and rising fears of all-out war in the Middle East, the Guardian’s 10-day polling average tracker showed the vice-president and Democratic nominee with a two-point nationwide lead, 48% to 46%, over her Republican opponent as of 10 October – tellingly, down from a 4% advantage she registered a fortnight ago. More plainly worrying for the Democrats is the picture it paints in what are generally regarded as the seven key battleground states that will determine who ends up in the White House: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.”
[Editor’s Note: Mark Halperin works for the right-wing, Trumpist NewsMax. This commentary should be taken as a propaganda piece, rather than information — let alone analysis.
The same goes for the commenter.]
Private Polling Shows Kamala Harris ‘In a Lot of Trouble’: ‘She Could Lose All 7’ Swing States: https://www.mediaite.com/news/mark-halperin-warns-that-private-polling-shows-kamala-harris-in-a-lot-of-trouble-she-could-lose-all-7-swing-states/
“What’s happening now with Kamala Harris is, this is an experiment. Can you win a short campaign with an untested candidate? And what I’m telling you is happening in private polling is she’s got a problem now, okay? It’s not cheering for Trump.”
RCP averages for the 7 battleground states show that Harris is way behind where both Biden and Clinton were at the same time in the campaign: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
She is relying on a high turnout by young people as well as minorities – however, both demographics traditionally don’t turn out that well compared to white middle-aged men who are mostly supportive of Trump.
Donald Trump needs to win just 3 of the 7 battleground states (Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania) to reach 270 in the electoral college.
[Editor’s Note: ActiVote is not a reliable site — people can just click and “vote”, so there is no recognized method for the outcome.
Harris is ahead of Trump in all reliable national polls, while th seven swing states are all toss-ups within the margin of polling error.]
Democrats grow anxious as Election Day nears : https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/09/politics/democratic-anxiety-kamala-harris-2024-election/index.html
“There is a growing sense that her campaign is stuck in the mud – as familiar debates crop up over where and how to deploy precious resources. Harris advisers often publicly dismiss the polls, acknowledging that the race is close and will remain so leading up to Election Day. But just weeks shy – and after multiple blitzes to battleground states and a debate that wiped away memories of Biden’s unraveling – the needle has barely moved, if at all. That Harris is the first major party presidential nominee in six decades not to have won a competitive primary remains for some a source of lingering doubt People are nervous. They know the polls are tight,” a source close to the campaign said. “A lot of us are having these flashbacks to 2016 too. We know when it can go the wrong way, and it can still feel fresh.”
A recent poll shows Trump ahead nationally, just not in a few battleground states: https://www.activote.net/trump-takes-the-lead/
“Trump leads among rural and suburban voters, while Harris leads among urban voters. Harris leads among younger voters (18-49) while Trump leads among older voters (50+). Harris leads among women, while Trump leads among men. ”
Guess who turns out to vote more? Older folks, not younger folks. That’s why Harris is in trouble. She needs to win more older white men.
[Editor’s Note: This is a comment cherry-picking from the polls, some of which have Harris ahead, some of which have Trump ahead.
The race in the swing states is a toss-up, although a weighted compilation of the polls has Harris with a narrow advantage within the margin of error.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model ]
Latest poll (there are many) shows Trump ahead in Pennsylvania: https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-pennsylvania-survey-trump-leads-by-two-points
“Donald Trump appears to be gaining momentum in Pennsylvania with his numbers among independent, senior, and African American voters increasing or holding steady. It appears that Harris’s support from African American males is actually deteriorating a bit.”
Trump is surging in the other “blue wall” states: https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3913
MICHIGAN: Trump 50%, Harris 47%, other candidates 2%
WISCONSIN: Trump 48%, Harris 46%, other candidates 2%