Originally published by The Conversation:
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Let’s compare and contrast Donald Trump’s second state visit to the UK this week with his stay in 2019 when Queen Elizabeth II was on the throne.
Much has changed in the world and in Trump’s approach. From a British perspective the aim will be to gloss over the differences between Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer and to stress continuity in UK-US relations.
This means underlining the historic relationship between the UK and the US; their common heritage and cultural and political traditions; and their shared values and international outlook. To achieve this, the Trumps will visit St George’s Chapel at Windsor, inspect the Guard of Honour and tour the Royal Collection in the Green Drawing Room of Windsor Castle, where they will be shown objects which relate to the shared history between the UK and the US.
A joint flypast of British and US Air Force F-35 aircraft will symbolize industrial and military collaboration as the embodiment of the “special relationship”. As in 2019, the program has been choreographed to keep Trump a safe distance from protesters and politics.
This will again be the “heritage and high life” version of Britain. For Trump, it represents a high point in his journey from the outer boroughs of New York to the heart of what he considers to be elite society.
Symbolically, it seems to complete his mother’s journey, after she fled poverty in Scotland in the 1930s, with her son to hosted and feted by the British monarch. Trump’s love of the Royal Family is well documented; their global fame, celebrity and high regard are aspects of performative public life that he aspires to emulate.
Potential Pitfalls
Trump’s visit comes as the UK grapples with a number of issues in which the US has a significant interest. First is the removal of Peter Mandelson as the UK’s Ambassador to the US.
Mandelson is known to have developed a friendly relationship with Trump, so the subject of his dismissal and its circumstances – over a friendship with Jeffrey Epstein – may be at the front of Trump’s mind as his opponents at home press to discover more about the nature of his own relationship with the disgraced financier.
Another issue is the UK Government’s pledge to recognize Palestinian statehood alongside other G7 allies such as France and Canada.
The official US position, repeated recently by the American Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, is that recognition of the state of Palestine would be “disastrous” and “rewards Hamas’s monstrous terrorism”. And you’d imagine the UK Government will be keen for Trump to avoid references to recent anti-immigration marches.
For Prime Minister Starmer, the hope must be that Trump and his team will be on their best behavior during the visit for fear of spoiling the celebratory mood. Perhaps repeatedly stressing the “special relationship” will help insulate the UK from Trumpian criticism.
The real test of this will be after all the royal pageantry of honor guards, flypasts and state banquets, when Trump meets Starmer at Chequers on September 18. The Prime Minister will want the narrative to focus on a new “landmark” deal on building nuclear reactors between the two countries. He will be hoping to negotiate a more favorable tariff regime on UK steel exports.
It’s unlikely, though, that Mandelson’s sacking and Palestinian statehood will not be raised. The potential for the US President to air his views in public is one which must be worrying Starmer and his advisors.
Trump has demonstrated his tendency to try to dominate every news cycle by provocative acts and statements – what’s known as “flooding the zone”. On his first state visit to the UK, he preceded the trip with an interview in The Sun newspaper, in which he intervened in the leadership contest underway in the Conservative Party to undermine Prime Minister Theresa May.
Trump endorsed Boris Johnson, saying he would make an excellent new premier. On his arrival, he immediately engaged in a Twitter exchange with London Major Sadiq Khan, who had opposed his visit, calling him “a stone cold loser”.
A Very Different President
In his first term of office, Trump’s Presidency was largely managed by the so-called “adults in the room”. He was surrounded by establishment advisors who protected the novice president and the wider world from some of his more erratic impulses and wilder instincts.
His second term, however, represents a very different version of Trump in power. Surrounded by loyalists and enablers, Trump has set about dismantling the traditional idea of what American power represents, at home and abroad. From the domestic turmoil as his policies repeatedly challenge US constitutional norms to his erratic and often dangerous trade and foreign policies, the contrast is striking.
Part of the way in which this manifests in foreign policy is a willingness to leverage American power to advance US national interests, without concessions to America’s allies. Trump’s willingness to demand support for the fossil fuel industry, to press for a tougher approach to China, and to insist on an absolutist approach to free speech are all features of this second-term strategy – and may well be on the agenda when he meets Starmer.
When asked why he wanted to be President, Trump replied, “I want to be the most famous man in the world”. For him the theater is the substance, the performance is the politics. It’s all about the Trump Show.
Whether it is an offhand criticism of the UK Government’s failure to stop migrants crossing the English Channel, chastising Britain for recognizing the state of Palestine, or railing against London’s support for climate change mitigation, Trump is unlikely to miss the opportunity to generate controversy. He enjoys the spectacle that his hosts are powerless to respond in kind for fear of what his intemperate response would be. The irony — that this shows that Trump does not know how to behave in the company of Kings and courtiers — is lost on the reality TV star.
With that propensity for disruption, and with Trump willing to change his foreign policy approach based on how he may feel on any given day, this is a visit fraught with potential pitfalls.
