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UPDATE, NOV. 3

Final pre-election estimate — Biden has an 89% chance of victory.

Final Swing State Estimates

• Minnesota: Biden 96% chance of victory, up from 95%
• Michigan: Biden 95%
• Wisconsin: Biden 94%, up from 93%
• New Hampshire: Biden 89%
• Nevada: Biden 88%, up from 87%
• Pennsylvania: Biden 84%, down from 85%
• Nebraska 2nd District: Biden 72%, down from 74%
• Arizona: Biden 68%, down from 72%
• Florida: Biden 69%, up from 67%
• North Carolina: Biden 64%
• Georgia: Biden 58%, up from 55%
• Maine 2nd District: Biden 57%, down from 58%
• Ohio: Trump 55%, up from 51%
• Iowa: Trump 60%, down from 62%
• Texas: Trump 62%

Final Polls

• Pennsylvania: (NBC/Marist) Biden 51-46; (Monmouth) Biden 51-44
• Florida: (Quinnipiac) Biden 47-42; (Reuters/Ipsos) Biden 50-46; (Fox 35/Advantage) Trump 48-47
• Georgia: (WSB/Landmark) Trump 50-46
• North Carolina: (Reuters/Ipsos) Biden 49-48
• Arizona: (Reuters/Ipsos) Biden 49-47; (NBC/Marist) Tie 48-48
• Ohio: (Quinnipiac) Biden 47-43

Trump supporters on way to his rally in Kenosha, Wisconsin, November 2, 2020 (Bing Guan/Reuters)

UPDATE, NOV. 2

Biden is at 89% chance of victory.

State Changes

• Michigan: Biden 95%, down from 96%
• Wisconsin: Biden 93%, down from 94%
• Nevada: Biden 87%, down from 90%
• Pennsylvania: Biden 86%, up from 85%
• Florida: Biden 67%, up from 65%
• North Carolina: Biden 64%, down from 65%
• Maine 2nd District: Biden 58%, up from 55%
• Georgia: Biden 55%, down from 58%
• Ohio: Trump 51%, down from 52%
• Iowa: Trump 62%, down from 65%
• Texas: Trump 62%, down from 65%

Latest Polls

• Florida (Emerson): Biden 51-45
• North Carolina (Emerson): Tie 47-47
• Pennsylvania (Emerson): Biden 50-46; (Reuters/Ipsos) Biden 51-48
• Georgia (Emerson): Trump 49-48
• Michigan (Emerson): Biden 52-45; (Mitchell) Biden 52-45; (Reuters/Ipsos) Biden 52-42
• Iowa (Emerson): Trump 47-46
• Wisconsin (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 53-43
• Ohio (Emerson): Biden 49-48
• Arizona (Emerson): Biden 48-46
• Nevada (Emerson): Biden 49-47
• Texas (Emerson): Tie 49-49
• Maine 2nd District (Emerson): Biden 50-47

Monday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden: Beaver County and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• Donald Trump: Fayetteville, North Carolina; Scranton, Pennsylvania; Traverse City and Grand Rapids, Michigan; Kenosha, Wisconsin
• Kamala Harris: Luzerne County, Lehigh Valley, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Mike Pence: Latrobe and Erie, Pennsylvania

UPDATE, NOV. 1

Biden remains at 90% chance of victory.

State Changes

• Minnesota: Biden 95% chance of victory, up from 94%
• Nevada: Biden 90%, up from 89%
• Nebraska 2nd: Biden 74%, down from 78%
• Arizona: Biden 72%, up from 70%
• North Carolina: Biden 65%, down from 67%
• Florida: Biden 65%, down from 66%
• Maine 2nd: Biden 55%, down from 56%
• Ohio: Trump 52%, down from 54%
• Texas: 65%, down from 66%
• Iowa: Trump 65%, up from 55%

Latest Polls

• Pennsylvania (Morning Call): Biden 49-44; (ABC/WashPost) Biden 51-44; (NYT/Siena) Biden 49-43
• Florida (NYT/Siena): Biden 47-44; (ABC/WashPost) Trump 50-48; (St Pete) Biden 49-48
• North Carolina (CNN): Biden 51-45
• Arizona (CNN): Biden 50-46; (NYT/Siena) Biden 49-43
• Iowa (Des Moines Register): Biden 48-41
• Michigan (CNN): Biden 53-41; (EPIC/MRA) Biden 48-41
• Wisconsin (Emerson): Biden 53-45; (CNN) Biden 52-44; (NYT/Siena) Biden 52-41
• Nebraska 2nd (Emerson): Biden 50-47

Sunday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• Donald Trump: Washington, Michigan; Dubuque, Iowa; Hickory, North Carolina; Rome, Georgia; Miami, Florida
• Kamala Harris: Fayetteville and Goldsboro, North Carolina; Gwinnett County, Georgia

Barack Obama and Joe Biden campaign in Michigan, October 31, 2020

UPDATE, OCT. 31

Biden rises to 90% chance of victory.

State Changes

• Minnesota: Biden 94%, up from 93%
• Nevada: Biden 89%, down from 90%
• Arizona: Biden 70%, up from 68%
• North Carolina: Biden 67%, up from 63%
• Florida: Biden 66%, up from 64%
• Ohio: Trump 54%, down from 55%
• Iowa: Trump 55%, up from 54%

Latest Polls

• North Carolina (NBC/Marist): Biden 52-46; (East Carolina) Biden 49-47
• Georgia (WSB/Landmark): Trump 48-47

Saturday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden and Barack Obama: Flint and Detroit, Michigan
• Donald Trump: 4 stops in Pennsylvania
• Kamala Harris: Fayetteville and Goldsboro, North Carolina
• Mike Pence: Elm City and Elizabeth City, North Carolina

UPDATE, OCT. 30

Biden rises to 89% chance of victory.

State Changes

• Michigan: Biden 96% chance of victory, up from 94%
• Wisconsin: Biden 94%, up from 93%
• New Hampshire: Biden 89%, up from 87%
• Arizona: Biden 68%, up from 67%
• Florida: Biden 64%, up from 62%
• North Carolina: Biden 63%, down from 64%
• Georgia: Biden 58%, up from 54%
• Maine 2nd District: Biden 56%, up from 53%
• Iowa: Trump 54%, from 50-50
• Ohio: Trump 55%, down from 59%
• Texas: Trump 66%, down from 70%

Latest Polls

• Florida (Monmouth): Biden 51-45; (Quinnipiac) Biden 45-42; (NBC/Marist) Biden 51-47; (The Hill/HarrisX) Biden 50-47
• North Carolina (The Hill/HarrisX): Biden 49-48; (NYT/Siena) Biden 48-45; (UMass Lowell) Tie 48-48
• Texas (UMass Lowell): Trump 48-47
• Ohio (Quinnipiac): Biden 48-43
• Iowa (Quinnipiac): Trump 47-46
• Minnesota (Survey USA): Biden 47-42
• New Hampshire (St Anselm): Biden 52-44; (UMass Lowell) Biden 53-43

Friday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden: St Paul, Minnesota; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Des Moines, Iowa
• Donald Trump: Rochester, Minnesota; Waterford, Michigan; Green Bay, Wisconsin
• Kamala Harris: Houston, Texas
• Mike Pence: Flagstaff and Tucson, Arizona

Voters cast early ballots at a dropbox outside City Hall, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, October 17 (Mark Makela/Getty)

UPDATE, OCT. 29:

Biden remains at 88% chance of victory.

State Changes

• Wisconsin: Biden 93%, up from 89%
• Minnesota: Biden 93%, down from 94%
• New Hampshire: Biden 88%, up from 87%
• Pennsylvania: Biden 86%, up from 85%
• Arizona: Biden 70%, up from 67%
• North Carolina: Biden 64%, up from 63%
• Florida: Biden 62%, down from 65%
• Maine 2nd District: Biden 53%, up from 51%
• Georgia: Biden 54%, up from 51%
• Ohio: Trump 59%, up from 58%
• Texas: Trump 70%, up from 68%

Latest Polls

• Minnesota (SurveyUSA): Biden 47-42
• Wisconsin (ABC/WashPost): Biden 57-40; (Marquette) Biden 48-43
• Florida (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 49-47
• Arizona (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 48-46
• Michigan (NYT/Siena): Biden 49-41; (ABC/WashPost) Biden 51-44; (MRS/Mitchell) Biden 52-42
• Georgia (Monmouth): Biden 50-46
• Maine 2nd District (Colby): Biden 46-42

Thursday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden: Tampa and Broward County, Florida
• Donald Trump: Tampa, Florida; Fayetteville, North Carolina
• Kamala Harris: Virtual mobilization and fundraiser events
• Mike Pence: Des Moines, Iowa; Reno, Nevada

Donald Trump waves at supporters in Bullhead, Arizona, October 28, 2020 (Isaac Brekken/Getty)

UPDATE, OCT. 28

Biden remains at 88% chance of victory.

State Changes:

• Iowa: 50-50 from Trump 51% chance of victory
• Minnesota: Biden 94%, up from 92%
• Pennsylvania: Biden 85%, down from 86%
• Arizona: Biden 67%, up from 66%
• Florida: Biden 65%, down from 67%
• North Carolina: Biden 63%, down from 65%
• Texas: Trump 68%, up from 67%

Latest Polls:

• North Carolina (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 49-48; (WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA) Tie 48-48
• Arizona (OH Predictive Insights): Biden 49-46
• Michigan (Detroit News/WDIV-TV): Biden 49-42; (Reuters/Ipsos) Biden 52-43
• Nevada (NYT/Siena): Biden 49-43
• Iowa (WHO-TV): Biden 50-46

Wednesday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden: None (Briefing with Medical and Public Health Experts on Coronavirus)
• Donald Trump: Laughlin-Bullhead Airport (Nevada-Arizona); Phoenix, Arizona
• Kamala Harris: Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona
• Mike Pence: Mosinee, Wisconsin and Flint, Michigan

Joe Biden at a drive-in rally, Atlanta, Georgia on Tuesday (Brian Snyder/Reuters)

UPDATE, OCT. 27:

Biden rises to 88% chance of victory.

State Changes

• Georgia: Biden 51%, flip from Trump 54%
• Maine 2nd: Biden 51%, up from 50-50
• Michigan: Biden 94%, up from 93%
• Nevada: Biden 92%, up from 90%
• Wisconsin: Biden 89%, up from 86%
• Florida: Biden 67%, up from 66%
• Ohio: Trump 58%, up from 57%
• Texas: Trump 67%, up from 62%

Latest Polls:

• Florida (Florida Atlantic): Biden 50-48
• Georgia (AJC): Biden 47-46
• Pennsylvania (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 50-45; (Uni of Wisconsin/YouGov) Biden 52-44
• Texas (NYT/Siena): Trump 47-43; (Uni of Houston) Trump 50-45
• Wisconsin (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 53-44; (Uni of Wisconsin/YouGov) Biden 53-44
• Michigan (Uni of Wisconsin/YouGov): Biden 52-44

Tuesday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden: Atlanta and Warm Springs, Georgia
• Donald Trump: Omaha, Nebraska; West Salem, Wisconsin; Lansing, Michigan
• Kamala Harris: Reno and Las Vegas, Nevada
• Mike Pence: Wilmington, North Carolina
• Barack Obama: Orlando, Florida

Donald Trump abruptly ends his interview with 60 Minutes’ Lesley Stahl:

UPDATE, OCT. 26:

Biden returns to 87% chance of victory.

State Changes

• Michigan: Biden 93%, up from 92%
• Minnesota: Biden 92%, up from 91%
• Nevada: Biden 91%, up from 90%
• Nebraska 2nd District: Biden 78%, up from 77%
• Florida: Biden 66%, down from 67%
• Georgia: Trump 54%, down from 55%

Latest Polls

• Florida (CBS/YouGov): Biden 50-48
• Georgia (CBS/YouGov): Tie 49-49
• North Carolina (CBS/YouGov): Biden 51-47
• Texas (Dallas Morning News): Biden 48-45

Monday Campaign Stops<

• Donald Trump: Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania
• Mike Pence: Hibbing, Minnesota

Kamala Harris campaigns in Troy, Michigan on Sunday (Robin Buckson/Detroit News)

UPDATE, OCT. 25:

Biden slips slightly to 86% chance of victory, mainly because of an adjustment making Trump a narrow favorite in Georgia.

State Changes

• Georgia: Trump 55% chance of victory from 50-50
• Maine 2nd District: 50-50 from Biden 51%
• Nebraska 2nd District: Biden 77%, down from 78%
• Florida: Biden 67%, down from 70%
• Arizona: Biden 66%, down from 68%
• North Carolina: Biden 65%, down from 67%
• Iowa: Trump 51%, down from 52%
• Ohio: Trump 57%, up from 56%

Sunday Campaign Stops

• Donald Trump: Manchester-Boston Regional Airport, New Hampshire
• Kamala Harris: Detroit, Troy, and Pontiac, Michigan
• Mike Pence: Kinston, North Carolina

UPDATE, OCT. 24

Biden still at 87% chance of victory.

State Changes

• Iowa: 50-50 from Trump 52% chance of victory
• Florida: Biden 70%, down from 72%

Latest Polls

• Florida (St. Pete): Biden 49-47
• Arizona (Susquehanna): Trump 47-46
• Georgia (WSB/Landmark): Trump 49-45
• Pennsylvania (Morning Call): Biden 51-44
• Michigan (EPIC-MRA): Biden 48-39

Saturday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden: Bucks and Luzerne Counties, Pennsylvania
• Donald Trump: Waukesha County, Wisconsin; Circleville, Ohio; Lumberton, North Carolina
• Kamala Harris: Cleveland, Ohio
• Mike Pence: Lakeland and Tallahassee, Florida
• Barack Obama: Miami, Florida

Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden lays out his Coronavirus plan in Wilmington, Delaware, October 23, 2020

UPDATE, OCT. 23

Biden remains at 87% chance of victory.

State Changes

• Georgia: 50-50 from Trump 51% chance of victory
• Wisconsin: Biden 86%, up from 85%
• Florida: Biden 72%, up from 71%
• North Carolina: Biden 67%, down from 68%
• Texas: Trump 65%, down from 67%

Latest Polls

• Minnesota (KSTP/Survey USA): Biden 48-42

Friday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden: Wilmington, Delaware
• Donald Trump: The Villages and Pensacola, Florida
• Kamala Harris: Atlanta, Georgia
• Mike Pence: West Mifflin, Pennsylvania

UPDATE, OCT. 22:

Biden remains at 87% chance of victory.

State Changes

• Nevada: Biden 90%, up from 87%
• Pennsylvania: Biden 86%, down from 87%
• Wisconsin: Biden 85%, down from 88%
• Florida: Biden 71%, up from 70%
• Arizona: Biden 68%, down from 69%
• North Carolina: Biden 67%, down from 68%
• Georgia: Trump 51%, from 50-50
• Iowa: Trump 52%, down from 58%
• Ohio: Trump 56% from 50-50
• Texas: Trump 67%, down from 69%

Thursday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden and Donald Trump: Presidential Debate in Nashville, Tennessee
• Kamala Harris: “Women for Biden” virtual event
• Mike Pence: Waterford, Michigan

UPDATE, OCT. 21:

Biden edges back to 87% chance of victory on November 3.

State Changes

• Ohio: 50-50 from Trump 51% chance of victory
• Minnesota: Biden 90%, down from 92%
• Wisconsin: Biden 88%, up from 87%
• Nevada: Biden 87%, down from 88%
• Florida: Biden 70%, down from 71%
• North Carolina: Biden 68%, up from 67%
• Maine 2nd District: Biden 51%, down from 52%
• Texas: Trump 69%, up from 67%

Latest Polls

• Florida (UNF): Biden 48-47
• Georgia (NYT/Siena): Tie 45-45
• Minnesota (MinnPost): Biden 49-44
• Iowa (InsiderAdvantage): Tie 45-45
• North Carolina (ABC News/WashPost): Biden 49-48; (East Carolina) Biden 50-47; (Reuters/Ipsos) Biden 49-46
• Michigan (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 51-44

Wednesday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden: None (Preparing for Thursday Presidential Debate)
• Donald Trump: Gastonia, North Carolina
• Kamala Harris: Asheville and Charlotte, North Carolina
• Mike Pence: Raleigh, North Carolina and Cincinnati, Ohio
• Barack Obama: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Latest Polls

• Wisconsin (Fox): Biden 49-44; (Susqehanna) Tie 45-45
• Florida (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 50-46; (CNN) Biden 50-46
• Iowa (NYT/Siena): Biden 46-43; (Emerson) Trump 48-46
• Arizona (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 49-46
• Texas (Quinnipiac): Tie 47-47
• Ohio (Fox): Trump 48-45
• Pennsylvania (USA Today/Suffolk): Biden 49-42; (Fox) Biden 50-45; (Quinnipiac) Biden 51-43
• Michigan (Fox): Biden 52-40

UPDATE, OCT. 20:

Biden edges out to 88% change of victory on November 3.

State Changes

• Georgia: 50-50 from Biden 51% chance of victory
• Michigan: Biden 92%, up from 91%
• Nevada: Biden 88%, up from 87%
• New Hampshire: Biden 87%, up from 86%
• Wisconsin: Biden 87%, down from 88%
• Nebraska 2nd District: Biden 79%, up from 78%
• Arizona: Biden 69%, up from 68%
• North Carolina: Biden 68%, up from 67%

Si

• Iowa: Trump 57%, down from 58%
• Texas: Trump 67%, down from 69%

Latest Polls

• Georgia (Emerson): Trump 48-47
• Pennsylvania (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 49-45
• Wisconsin (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden 51-43
• Michigan (MIRS/Mitchell): Biden 51-41

Tuesday Campaign Stops

• Joe Biden: None (Preparing for Thursday Presidential Debate)
• Donald Trump: Erie, Pennsylvania
• Kamala Harris: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
• Mike Pence: None (White House Coronavirus Task Force Meeting)

UPDATE, OCT 19:

No notable shifts on Sunday, with Joe Biden retaining an 87% chance (7-1 favorite) of winning the November 3 Presidential election.

State Changes

• North Carolina: Biden 67% chance of victory from 66%
• Arizona: Biden 68% from 67%
• Florida: Biden 72% from 71%

Latest Polls

• Arizona (CBS/YouGov) — Biden 50-47
• Wisconsin (CBS/YouGov) — Biden 51-46

Monday Campaign Stops

• Donald Trump: Prescott and Tucson, Arizona
• Kamala Harris: Orlando and Jacksonville, Florida
• Mike Pence: Hermon, Maine and Cumberland, Pennsylvania

ORIGINAL ENTRY, OCT 18: In the November 3 Presidential election, US voters will choose between the incumbent Donald Trump aIhnd Democratic candidate Joe Biden.

The campaign has not been straightforward, amid the Coronavirus pandemic, and neither is the American system. So here's the essential guide to understanding why Biden is likely to be the 46th US President --- and why Trump still has a chance for a second term.

The 538 Votes in the Electoral College

While the electorate cast their ballots for a preferred Presidential candidate, the winner is not determined by popular vote.

In two recent elections, the candidate with the most votes "lost": Democrat Al Gore received more ballots than George W. Bush in 2000, and Hillary Clinton led Trump by more than 3 million votes in 2016.

Instead, the President is selected by 538 electors. They are allocated by population across the 50 states and the District of Columbia, from California with 55 to several states and Washington DC with three each.

A candidate's electors are on a winner-take-all basis. So Trump lost by 30% in California and 23% in New York in 2016, but prevailed because he edged out Clinton by about 80,000 votes across three states --- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Summary: Biden as 7-1 Favorite

FiveThirtyEight, our go-to site for analysis of polling and other factors for the 2020 elections, gives Biden an 87% chance of winning.

In other words, the Democrat is a 7-1 favorite and Trump a 7-1 underdog. Here's why.

Of the 50 states, 37 (and Washington DC) are locked in. Either Biden or Trump is so far ahead, and the states are so traditionally Democrat or Republican, that only a political miracle will switch them on November 3.

That starting point favors Biden. Among his "safe" states are California (55 electors) and New York (29), and Illinois.

Those large states contribute to a safe total of 212 electoral votes for the former Vice Presidential. He only needs to 58 of the 201 "swing" electoral votes to prevail.

In contrast, there is no large state in Trump's safe column. Even Texas (38) has slipped from Deep Red Republican to Pink or, for some such as Real Clear Politics, a toss-up.

Trump only has 125 safe electoral votes. To overcome Biden, he needs 145 of the 201 "swing" votes.

Biden's Swing-State Advantage (For Now)

So what about those 13 swing states?

Biden needs six to lock in his victory speech on November 3. Trump needs eight.

On October 19, relying on FiveThirtyEight's assessments, Biden has significant leads in nine of the 13 states. Trump only has leads in two, and two are toss-ups.

Indeed, Biden has "super-leads" --- defined as more than an 85% chance of victory --- in six of the states. These alone would put him in the White House, with no further consideration of toss-ups. (The Cook Political Report, another leading political analysis site, has Biden on 290 electoral votes in its safe, likely, and lean columns.)

Our swing state summary:

Biden Super-Leads>:

• Minnesota (10 electoral votes) --- Biden 92% chance of victory
• Michigan (16) --- 91%
• Wisconsin (10) --- 88%
• Nevada (6) --- 87%
• Pennsylvania (20) --- 87%
• New Hampshire (4) --- 86%

Biden Leads:

• Nebraska 2nd District (1 electoral vote) --- Biden 78% chance of victory
• Florida (29) --- 71%
• Arizona (11) --- 67%
• North Carolina (15) --- 66%

Trump Leads:

• Texas (38 electoral votes) --- Trump 69% chance of victory
• Iowa (6) --- 58%

Toss-Ups

• Ohio (18 electoral votes)
• Georgia (16)

Donald Trump returns to Washington from his rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, June 21, 2020 (Patrick Semansky/AP)

The Swing States

Ranked in order from largest chance of a Biden victory to largest chance of a Trump win:

Minnesota (10 electoral votes --- Biden 92%)

Only a few weeks ago, the Trump campaign was still playing up high hopes of taking the Land of 10,000 Lakes from the Democrats, having lost it to Clinton by only 1.5% in 2016. They flew the flag of an endorsement by mayors in the state's Iron Range.

But Trump has faded elsewhere since then. On Friday, the campaign pulled all but 49 of its planned 812 ads in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, saving $1.1 million for other states.

Poll Average: Biden up 6.6%

Reaffirmation of Minnesota Citizenship Values rally, Bemidji, September 18, 2020 (Micah Friez/Bemidji Pioneer)

Michigan (16 --- Biden 91%)

The Great Lakes State was where Trump's dramatic win was sealed in 2016, as some Democratic voters stayed home rather than backing Clinton.

But if Trump built on economic frustrations and anxieties, Michigan has continued to struggle and even suffer amid trade wars and the Coronavirus pandemic. The state's governor Gretchen Whitmer --- despised by Trump and a target of a kidnapping plot by right-wing militiamen --- is far more popular than Trump in her handling of the crisis.

Poll Average: Biden up 7.2%

Donald Trump at his rally in Muskegon, Michigan, October 17, 2020 (Doug Mills/New York Times)>

Wisconsin (10 --- Biden 88%)

The Badger State was the second of the decisive trio four years ago, and its story is similar to Michigan's with hopes of an economic upturn failing to come to fruition for many.

There is also the overlay this summer of the police shooting of Jacob Blake, which spurred marches in Kenosha and across the US. Trump has tried to capitalize by portraying the marchers as extremists, but the portrayal was dented by the killing of two demonstrators by a teenager with right-wing militia.

Poll Average: Biden up 6.3%

Joe Biden at a community "listening session" in Grace Lutheran Church, Kenosha, Wisconsin, September 3, 2020 (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

Nevada (6 --- Biden 87%)

A "purple" state, Nevada juxtaposes conservative rural areas with the union presence and Democrat-friendly territory around Las Vegas.

Trump only lost by 2.4% to Clinton in 2016, but his campaign has struggled to make inroads against a well-organized Democratic effort, particularly in Las Vegas and suburban areas.

Poll Average: Biden up 5.2%

Pennsylvania (20 --- Biden 87%)

The third and largest of Trump's winning trifecta in 2016, Pennsylvania has been the "tipping point" state on the assumption that Biden would regain Wisconsin and Michigan but Trump would prevail in North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.

That has been reflected in the intense presence, even amid the pandemic, of both campaigns in the state. Biden has devoted much of his personal time to the state, and Trump has defied Coronavirus with rallies. Barack Obama, who gave his Democratic National Convention address from Philadelphia, will make another campaign appearance for Biden in the city this week.

Biden's message of responsibility over Coronavirus and the economy --- "Scranton v. Park Avenue" --- appears to have resonated, while Trump's erratic behavior seems to have dented his chances.

Poll average: Biden up 5.4%

Barack Obama addresses the Democratic National Convention from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, August 19, 2020

New Hampshire (4 --- Biden 86%)

Traditionally the first state to return votes, courtesy of the village of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire's four electoral votes are unlikely to be the tipping point in 2020.

Still, Donald Trump was so troubled by his narrow loss of the state four years ago that he lied about New Hampshire's voters being part of "millions" of fraudulent ballots.

The race may not be as tight this year --- while the Granite State is known for economic conservatives and has a popular Republican Governor in Chris Sununu, Trump has struggled to win over swing voters this year.

Poll average: Biden up 11.0%

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire tallies ballots in primaries, February 11, 2020

Nebraska 2nd District (1 --- Biden 78%)

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that have two at-large electors and also an individual elector from each of their Congressional districts --- and yes, there is a chance that a single electoral vote could be the difference this year.

If that vote comes from the 2nd Congressional District around Omaha, then Biden is in a good position. In contrast to the rest of Nebraska, with its widespread rural areas, the state's largest city and its suburbs have been moving toward the Democrats.

Poll advantage: Biden up 7.6%

Jill Biden speaks with military families in Papillon, Nebraska, September 26, 2020 (Lily Smith/Omaha World-Herald/AP)

Florida (29 --- Biden 71%)

Along with Ohio, Florida has been the historic swing state for the Presidency, most notoriously in 2000 Bush v. Gore.

This year even staunchly pro-Trump Governor Ron DeSantis and a restrictive voting system that favors Republicans may not give Trump a chance to dispute any Biden victory.

Trump has been hurt with the state's older voters by the pandemic, compounding Democrats reclaiming votes in suburban areas. It wasn't quite enough to win the Senate and Governor's races in 2018, but Biden has a good chance to overcome the "Red" Panhandle and rural areas this year.

Poll advantage: Biden up 1.4%

Donald Trump throws a face mask into the audience, Sanford, Florida, October 12, 2020 (Reuters)

Arizona (11 --- Biden 67%)

Along with Georgia, the Copper State is the breaking story of 2020. Arizona has voted Republican in every Presidential election since 1948 except for its support of Bill Clinton in 1996.

But there have been signs of another "Red to Purple" state, with cities and suburbs moving to Democrats. Trump has been hurt by his hardline anti-immigration positions, among both Latinx and white voters. He has inflicted further damage with his denigration of Arizona's late Senator and GOP Presidential nominee John McCain, whose widow Cindy has endorsed Biden.

With a popular Democratic Senate candidate, former astronaut Mark Kelly, on course to defeat Trump ally Sen. Martha McSally --- and with a referendum on cannabis legalization likely to bring out the youth vote --- Arizona could be the catalyst for Democratic control of both the White House and Congress.

Poll average: Biden up 4.0%

Joe Biden and the late Sen. John McCain

North Carolina (15 --- 66%)

The Tar Heel State has seen the rise of conservative Republicans since the 1970s, with long-serving Sen. Jesse Helms breaking the Democratic hold on the state's highest offices. The state currently has two GOP senators, Richard Burr and Thom Tillis.

But Democrats rallied in 2018 mid-term elections in suburban areas, and Tillis is trailing in his contest with Cal Cunningham.

Trump had the edge in the state through the summer but, with North Carolinians hit hard by a Coronavirus surge, the advantage slipped away. Trying to stem the tide, Trump had a rally in Greenville on Thursday, but may have alienated some voters with his failure to acknowledge the scale of the pandemic.

Poll average: Biden up 2.7%

A Democracy North Carolina worker helps a caller

Maine 2nd Congressional District (1 --- Biden 52%

The smallest joker in the pack alongside Nebraska's 2nd District, Maine's 2nd covers almost 80% of the state. The status of second-most rural district in the US has balanced the Democrat advantage in cities.

However, Sen. Susan Collins is another Republican in re-election trouble, falling behind Sara Gideon. As with New Hampshire, Trump's move from controversy to controversy, amid Coronavirus and economic issues, may have frittered away the GOP's assumed edge with the 2nd's voters.

Poll average: Biden up 0.3%

Sara Gideon, Democratic candidate for Maine Senate seat held by Susan Collins

Georgia (16 --- Biden 51%)

Two years ago, a Democrat Presidential victory in the Peach State might have been a fantasy. Georgia had become a Deep Red state in both Presidential elections, with the exception of Bill Clinton's win in 1992, and Senate contests.

But as with states like Virginia and North Carolina, urban and some suburban areas were trending blue with a combination of non-white and less conservative white voters. In 2018, the GOP's Brian Kemp barely staved off challenger Stacey Abrams, possibly through voter suppression, and Democrats took House seats.

Kemp was the first governor to follow Trump's spring demand to "reopen" businesses and public places, and the state has been ravaged by Coronavirus since then, with the sixth-highest (soon to be fifth) number of cases in the US.

Not only has Trump's summer lead fallen away, but Democrats have unexpectedly opened the possibility of taking Sen. Kelly Loeffler's seat in a special election and Jon Ossoff has an outside chance to upset Sen. David Perdue.

Poll average: Biden up 1.2%

Line on first day of early voting in Georgia (Nathan Posner/REX)

Ohio (18 --- Trump 51%)

No Republican has ever won Ohio and failed to reach the White House. Indeed, the state has only backed a losing candidate on two occasions since 1896: the GOP's Thomas Dewey in 1944 and Richard Nixon in 1960.

That boded well for Trump until this summear. Ohio had been a tightly-fought swing state since 2000, but he easily won by 8% in 2016 and he held a smaller but still notable lead in June.

Since then, Biden has pressed his message over mismanagement of Coronavirus and the economy, with Ohio industries and farmers hit by the effect of Trump's trade policies. That has eaten into any "conservative" advantage in a state balanced between Republican and Democratic senators and representatives.

Both candidates are devoting much time in the final weeks to the state. If Trump can claw back his deficits elsewhere, Ohio could return to the vital role it played in George W. Bush's re-election in 2004.

Poll average: Trump up 0.5%

Joe Biden at a campaign event in Toledo, Ohio, October 12, 2020 (Rebecca Cook/Reuters)

Iowa (6 --- Trump 58%)

The Hawkeye State has swung between Republicans and Democrats, including votes for Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Al Gore in 2000. But in 2016, it decisively rejected Hillary Clinton with a 9.5% victory for Trump.

Trump's economic populism has been challenged by the damage to Iowa farmers in the China trade war. His message of social conservatism still has some resonance, especially outside Des Moines, but Sen. Jodi Ernst, a die-hard Trump supporter, has seen her summer lead disappear against Theresa Greenfield. The two most recent Presidential polls have Trump and Biden in a dead heat.

Poll average: Biden up 1.2%

A billboard en route to Donald Trump's rally, Des Moines, Iowa, October 14, 2020

Texas (38 --- Trump 69%)

A Republican Presidential candidate losing in Texas? It hasn't happened since 1976, when Gerald Ford fell to Jimmy Carter. Trump took the state by 9% in 2016.

There were hints of Purple in the Red state in 2018, when Democrats took House seats and Sen. Ted Cruz was almost upset by Beto O'Rourke. Trump's immigration stance appeared to cost votes in a state with a rapidly-changing population, and there were signs of the urban-suburban shift seen in other parts of the US.

Trump seemed to be secure at the start of September with about 80% chance of victory. But the state, whose Governor Greg Abbott followed Trump's demands to remove Coronavirus measures, is in another surge of the pandemic and now has the second-highest toll of deaths and cases in the US.

Abbott is trying to hold back any Democratic tide by limiting drop-off boxes --- there is only one for Houston's Harris Country, with 4.7 million people --- but a surge in mail-in ballots as well as turnout at polling stations could put Trump in trouble.

Poll average: Trump up 4.4%