Podcast: Iran Prepares to Leave the Nuclear Deal

I joined Monocle 24’s The Briefing on Tuesday afternoon to evaluate Iran’s latest moves over the wounded July 2015 nuclear deal.


Iran’s delegation to the UN says that it will notify the organization on Tuesday that Tehran is renewing nuclear activities within the framework of the agreement.

Far more seriously, the Supreme Leader said on Monday that Iran will not only renew the activities but will be prepared to resume uranium enrichment and expand it by 19 times — effectively consigning the deal to history.

See Iran Daily, June 5: Khamenei Orders Preparation for Renewed Nuclear Program to Counter “Enemy Plot”

So can the agreement be saved? And what happens if it cannot?

Europe has a window to maintain the deal if it promises economic links with Iran. But the duration of that window — will it last a few days? will it last a few weeks? — well, the Supreme Leader was announcing yesterday, “Don’t count on this being a long time”.

Listen from 1:16:

Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics at the University of Birmingham and editor-in-chief of EA WorldView. He is a specialist in US and British foreign policy and international relations, especially the Middle East and Iran. Formerly he worked as a journalist in the US, writing for newspapers including the Guardian and The Independent and was an essayist for The New Statesman before he founded EA WorldView in November 2008.

5 COMMENTS

  1. He takes a page from trump book. Except that iran has no good steps to take, his choices are bad, worse, worst and worst-est….

  2. Iran does not have the capacity to enrich uranium to 190,000 SWU. Not even close to that. This is just a negotiating tactic and warning to the EU to come up with their package of sweetners.

    Far more serious is that Khamenei appears to have cast Rouhani aside and imposed his authority on this issue which really should be handled by the President.

    Also, “regime change” cannot simply happen by collapsing the Iranian economy. The Great Depression in the U.S, or the economic crisis in Greece, did not lead the collapse of the political systems there.

  3. “Also, “regime change” cannot simply happen by collapsing the Iranian economy. The Great Depression in the U.S, or the economic crisis in Greece, did not lead the collapse of the political systems there.”

    The suggestion is that the regime would collapse due to lack of economy AND lack of socio-democratic process. Greece and the US didn’t suffer from lack of democracy…

    For 40 years, your kind have failed to understand anything outside of flogging for emam hosein, that is your mantra, your goal, your ambition…why would you have mental capacity to analyze the most basic concepts past 6th century

    • The suggestion is that the regime would collapse due to lack of economy AND lack of socio-democratic process. Greece and the US didn’t suffer from lack of democracy…

      Democracy is not some panacea that inoculated a society from all ills. North Korea has not collapsed and it’s situation is far worse.

      • Nobody said democracy is answer to everything…

        North koreans are isolated people and it takes far more to bring them to the level of the rest of the world in openness. People in iran are more exposed to what is happening in the rest of the world, and what they are missing….and this is despite all regime effort to keep people in iri silo….

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