Iran’s oil exports are falling, amid US withdrawal from the July 2015 nuclear deal and the threat of expanded American sanctions.

Shipping data confirms that exports of crude oil and condensate dropped 16% to 2.114 million barrels per day during the first two weeks of June, compared with the same period in May.

The decline is the sharpest since December 2016. Shipments to European Union countries fell by a third, with reductions in Spain, Greece, and Italy. Turkey, which has been buying almost 200,000 bpd on average, has lifted none so far this month.

Deliveries to India and Japan were both up compared with the previous month, and shipments to China were unchanged. However, exports to South Korea, which takes an average of 205,000 bpd, were down sharply.

The data also points to shippers and insurers beginning to draw down business. More than 70% of June’s shipments were carried on vessels owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company, or by the governments of India and Libya. In all of May, the figure was 52%.

Donald Trump’s order on May 9 said the US will sanction any foreign company with American links which is still trading or investing in Iran after early November. Refiners such as India’s Reliance Industries and Nayara, now owned by the Russian energy giant Rosneft and partners, have announced that they are breaking links, while Russia’s Lukoil and other firms are pulling out of projects inside the Islamic Republic.

Some analysts estimated that Iran’s export figure of almost 2.5 million bpd will be slashed by 40% because of the US restrictions.

Iranian media pins its hopes this morning on an announcement by Russia’s Gazprom that it may invest in several Iranian gas projects.

Vitaly Markelov, Gazprom’s deputy chairman, said documents will soon be prepared and presented to the National Iranian Oil Company, covering the development of the Kish, Farzad-A, and Farzad-B gasfields and a project in the South Pars energy hub.

Kish is one of Iran’s biggest gas fields. Farzad-A and Farzad-B, also in the Persian Gulf, are jointly shared with Saudi Arabia.

In another statement defying the economic situation, the Customs Administration has proclaimed that Iranian exports to the US rose 450% in March-April 2018, compared to the same period in 2017.

Mahmoud Bazari said 77 tons of goods, worth $1.31 million, were shipped. Most of the exports are food and agricultural products.