I spoke with 13 BBC outlets, Al Jazeera Arabic, TRT World, and Voice of Islam Radio on Thursday about the latest developments in Syria, including an imminent US-UK-France response to last Saturday’s chemical attacks by the Assad regime near Damascus.
Discussions project a strike on an Assad regime military facility by the weekend — but explain why this will not be enough to halt the killing of civilians by regime and Russian attacks.
More interviews will be uploaded throughout Thursday and Friday Friday.
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A discussion also including George Parker of the Financial Times, looking at both UK and US deliberations.
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My best guess is one of two options. Either Russia, within the next 48 hours, gives a clear assurance to the international community that it will now draw line against any further chemical attacks by its ally the Assad regime — something which it has failed to do for five years now…
…or, if Moscow fails to do that, there will be US military action which includes Britain and France by the weekend — a one-off attack against an Assad regime military facility, rather than a full intervention.
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There will have to be firm talking with Moscow. Not only, “How do we avoid a confrontation?”, but also “How do we get to political talks at least to stabilize the situation?”
Now you have to talk to the Russians not about overthrowing Assad, but about getting to a point where all civilians are assured of security.
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Russia has covered for the Assad regime’s chemical attacks, has tried to deny they even happened, has even tried to say these were attacks by Syria’s opposition. Unless you go to the Russians and say, “Look, we cannot tolerate your covering for these chemical attacks”, they will occur again and again — because the Assad regime won’t stop.
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More important than Donald Trump’s tweet is what the Pentagon is doing, with a review of targets for a strike, and the consultation with Britain and France.
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I’m always worried with any escalation in the Syrian crisis, but let’s be honest, the main victims who have been more than worried over the past seven years are the Syrian people — with more than 500,000 killed, many of them civilians, more than 11 million displaced, and the threat of conventional and not only chemical attacks continuing.
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If we are going to be concerned, the focus should not be on a new Cold War but on a very real war that has killed more than 500,000 Syrians and displaced more than 11 million.
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What you really need from the international community is protected zones for Syria’s civilians outside regime-controlled areas, which say that overflights by the Assad regime’s air force — or even by Russia’s warplanes — are not allowed. Until you do that, you haven’t taken a significant step.
“500,000 killed, many of them civilians”
At least 100,000 Syrian soldiers and allied militamen are among the dead. Perhaps 100,000 civilians have been killed, many of them by ISIS and JAN who have targeted Alawites and Christians, not to mention moderate Sunnis, for extermination. Only 20-40,000 civilians have been killed by SAA artillery and air bombardments of urban areas. Perhaps 20-30,000 foreign jihadists are among the dead also.
More than 100,000 civilians have been killed by the Assad regime alone. The VDC database offers a conservative number — as it only lists those deaths with full confirmation of circumstances and identity — has almost 115,000 names.
http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/martyrs/1/c29ydGJ5PWEua2lsbGVkX2RhdGV8c29ydGRpcj1ERVNDfGFwcHJvdmVkPXZpc2libGV8ZXh0cmFkaXNwbGF5PTB8c3RhdHVzPTF8
More than 90% of the civilian casualties in the conflict have been caused by the Assad regime, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights.
There are well documented cases of deliberate massacres of civilians, many of them religious minorities, by ISIS, JAN and other groups. The SAA, on the other hand, has killed civilians only inadvertently and inevitably because of the nature of urban warfare where militants hide among the civilian population.
In any case, 75-80% of the casualties in this war have been among the combatants.
There have been a small number of cases, compared to those by regime forces.
Again — more than 90% of civilian casualties in the conflict have been inflicted by the Assad regime and its allies.
Are we heading for a third world war? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-43732320/trump-syria-north-korea-are-we-heading-for-a-third-world-war