“It’s a win-win situation for Putin”


Developments on Day 175 of the Trump Administration:

Trump to See Putin in Germany

Donald Trump will get his long-awaited meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Hamburg, Germany on Friday.

However, the meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit is likely to only raise further questions about Trump’s position not only over Moscow but also about the wider issues being considered by other leaders.

Trump sent out different messages on Thursday. In a speech to a carefully-selected Polish audience, he used language that not only invoked images of Poland’s long-standing animosity with Russia and the Soviet Union, but also returned to the Cold War:

The fundamental question of our time is whether the West has the will to survive. Do we have the confidence in our values to defend them at any cost? Do we have enough respect for our citizens to protect our borders? Do we have the desire and the courage to preserve our civilization in the face of those who would subvert and destroy it?

Trump said Russia should “cease its destabilizing activities in Ukraine and elsewhere and its support for hostile regimes, including Syria and Iran,” so it would “join the community of responsible nations in our fight against common enemies and in defense of civilization itself”.

The speech — which combined the “America First” ideology of White House chief strategist Steve Bannon with the desire of the State and Defense Departments and National Security Council for a firm line with Russia — successfully diverted leading media outlets into predicting a Trump showdown with Putin. The BBC proclaimed a “battle” for Friday.

But Trump’s own views, rather than those of his advisors, came out forcefully in a press conference alongside Polish President Andrzej Duda — and his hostility was directed at American intelligence services and the press rather than Moscow.

See TrumpWatch, Days 174-175: Trump Trashes His Intelligence Services & US Press

Trump continued to give cover for Russia’s interference in the 2016 Presidential election — and the benefit that it gave him versus Hillary Clinton — with the false line that “nobody really knows” what occurred. He turned on US intelligence services, who have concluded that Moscow tried to affect the outcome through hacking and influence operations, by implying that they were wrong as they had been over Iraq’s weapons of mass destriction before the US-led war in 2003.

He then returned to his war against the US media, taking a question from a friendly — and possibly planted — journalist to continue his attack on “fake news” CNN:

They now have some pretty serious problems. They have been fake news for a long time. They have been covering me in a very dishonest way.

A Diversion from the Real News?

The Trump-Putin discussion, far from producing a “battle”, is likely to result in expressions of mutual admiration and the proclamation of US-Russian cooperation. Paradoxically, that could suck the oxygen out of the truly significant efforts for cooperation at the G20 summit, on issues such as climate change, migration and refugees, and economic recovery.

Trump and Putin are skipping Friday afternoon’s climate change session for their meeting, leaving the other 18 national leaders to discuss implementation of agreements such as the Paris Accords, from which Trump is withdrawing the US. Bilateral and multilateral talks will also be occurring beyond the attention of the media, including on how to pursue initiatives if the Trump Administration continues its protectionist course with the prospect of American self-isolation.

However, that is unlikely to be of concern to the Kremlin as it manages the encounter with Putin. Trump will be accompanied only by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, leaving behind the National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster and his Russian specialist Fiona Hill, both of whom are wary of the Russian leader. Drawing upon intelligence — easily obtained from Trump’s Twitter feed — that the US President can be quickly won over by flattery, Putin is expected to soon get a presentation of Washington and Moscow as equals organizing international affairs.

Mr. Putin will surely show up with finely honed talking points aimed at forging closer cooperation and reaffirming Russia’s old Soviet role as the equal of the United States in umpiring global affairs.

Neil MacFarquhar of The New York Times summarizes:

If nothing much emerges from the meeting, analysts said, the Kremlin can repeat the standard Russian line that Mr. Trump is weak, hamstrung by domestic politics.

But if Mr. Trump agrees to work with Mr. Putin despite a list of Russian transgressions beginning with the annexation of Crimea and ending with its interference in the 2016 presidential election, he will also look weak while Mr. Putin can claim that he reconstructed the relationship.

“It is a win-win situation for Putin,” said Andrei V. Kolesnikov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Trump “Insults Career Intelligence Pros”

Former Acting Attorney General Sally Yates, dismissed in late January after she warned of the Administration’s vulnerability to Russian blackmail, has used Twitter to respond to Trump’s insult of his intelligence services:

Yates was removed because of her warning that Trump’s “Muslim Ban” was legally indefensible, but the firing came days after National Security Advisor Michael Flynn lied to the FBI about his contacts with Russian Ambassador Sergei Kislyak.

Former and current intelligence officers also knocked back Trump’s exculpation of Moscow.

“Russians have maintained an aggressive collection posture in the US, and their success in election meddling has not deterred them,” said “a former senior intelligence official familiar with Trump administration efforts”.

Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said there was “no doubt” that Russia interfered in the 2016 elections and would seek to do the same next year.


Government Ethics Chief Quits Amid Trump’s Conflicts of Interest

Walter M. Shaub Jr., the director of the Office of Government Ethics, quits amid disputes over the conflicts of interest of Donald Trump and his associates.

Shaub, whose term was due to end in January, said, “There isn’t much more I could accomplish at the Office of Government Ethics, given the current situation. OGE’s recent experiences have made it clear that the ethics program needs to be strengthened.”

In a brief letter informing Trump, Shaub highlighted “the principle that public service is a public trust, requiring employees to place loyalty to the Constitution, the laws and ethical principles above private gain”.

Before Trump’s inauguration, Shaub publicly recommended that Trump liquidate his business and personal holdings. Trump did not take his advice, and the ethics head anticipated that he would soon be fired.

He was not dismissed, but the White House ignored his recommendation of discipline of top Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway for her on-air endorsement of the clothing line of Ivanka Trump. It also initially tried to block his request for copies of ethics waivers before backing down after a stern 10-page letter by Shaub — who soon noted that many of the waivers were undated and unsigned, and that some approved actions retroactively.

Shaub said in an interview with CBS:

Earlier this week the head of the Justice Department’s office of corporate compliance, Hui Chen, quit over “the numerous lawsuits pending against the President of the United States for everything from violations of the Constitution to conflict of interest … and the investigators and prosecutors fired for their pursuits of principles and facts”.