US Audio Analysis: Trump Plays to His Base…But It’s Not Enough


UPDATE 1600 GMT: Adam Quinn has expanded his analysis in a discussion with Monocle 24’s The Briefing on Tuesday afternoon — listen from 12:34:

Adam Quinn of the University of Birmingham sifts through the 2nd US Presidential debate, especially Donald Trump’s performance, in a discussion with BBC Three Counties Radio.

Listen to interview

Trump has this support base of 35%, maybe 40% in a very divided country with temperatures high politically. Those people are not turning away from him, no matter what he says or does.

To win the election, on the other hand, he probably needs another 5%, 6%, 7% of people.

Yesterday he made the people who love him very happy, but he said absolutely nothing that make anyone who is wavering — or whose concern is about the health of the political process — to come on to his side.

See also US Audio Analysis: “Trump is a Disaster” — The 2nd Presidential Debate
US Analysis: Politics Is in the Gutter — The 2nd Clinton-Trump Debate

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  1. Republican base is ~40% of voters. Trump got about 80% of R(and this is going down more right now but I don’t consider it)). It means his base of voters about 32% of partisan voters.
    Democrat base is ~42% of voters. Clinton has probably 90% of D. It means her base of voters at about 38% of partisan voters.
    Some independents moved already to other candidates,let’s say 6% of voters.
    And we talk about independents with about 12% of voters.If this latest group divides 2/3 for Clinton, the final result should be 38+8% ,thus 46 % against(32+4%) or about 36%. It may result in a big final difference of 10%. between Clinton and Trump.
    Better clarification here:

    • Fly in Hillary’s ointment…………. a higher than expected number of African Americans are going to either vote for Trump or stay home.

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