Syria Feature: Will the Ceasefire Hold?

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PHOTO: Image from claimed Russian incendiary attack on northern Homs Province early Saturday


Writing for The Arab Weekly, Mamoon Alabbasi considers the US-Russian ceasefire for Syria and whether it can be sustained, with analysis from and EA’s Scott Lucas and Chris Doyle of the Council for Arab-British Un­derstanding:


Experts are not certain at this stage whether the US-Russian brokered ceasefire in Syria can hold for a long period of time or if it can pave the way for a potential settle­ment between the warring parties.

The ceasefire…excludes the Islamic State and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, formerly known as al-Nusra Front.

If the ceasefire holds and aid is delivered to besieged areas, Wash­ington and Moscow plan to coordi­nate air strikes against ISIS and Jab­hat Fateh al-Sham.

UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura was, however, expressing frustration with the Syrian govern­ment for not doing its part in al­lowing the access of aid to Aleppo. Another hurdle would be the sepa­ration of moderate rebel groups from the hard-line Jabhat Fateh al- Sham, which Washington and Mos­cow consider a terrorist group.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told the BBC that Russia would target areas where Jabhat Fateh al-Sham fighters are located, even if moderate opposi­tion forces are with them. He added that this has been agreed to by the United States.

Details of the Russian-US agree­ment are unknown. France has called for them to be made public.

The ceasefire allowed Syrians to enjoy a much-needed period free of violence. The most recent cessation of hostilities was in February, also brokered by the United States and Russia, and ended with government and opposition forces trading blame for violations.

Expectations for a permanent set­tlement for the conflict in Syria are not much higher this time. Despite the high toll of the conflict — esti­mated at more than 400,000 killed — the main belligerents and their backers do not seem to be too ex­hausted to continue the war.

“For the ceasefire to have any chance to succeed it must be built upon additional local deals from the bottom up as well as top down,” said Chris Doyle, director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Un­derstanding (CABU).

“The monitoring mechanism needs to be robust and consider­ably larger and more effective than in 2012,” said Doyle, adding that “other confidence-building meas­ures must include a sizeable release of detainees”.

“This all ultimately must lead to a viable political process that de­livers real change in Syria, includ­ing the end of conflict,” said Doyle, who added that he was sceptical that such measures were going to be adopted on the ground.

“Only Kerry Genuinely Thinks There Can Be A Solution”

His doubts were shared by Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics at the University of Bir­mingham, England.

“Every party to the conflict in Syria is looking to use the ceasefire for improving its military position,” said Lucas, who is also the editor of EAworldview.com website, which focuses on Syria.

“The only exception is US Sec­retary of State John Kerry, who is genuinely looking for a political so­lution to come out of it,” Lucas said, adding that the Pentagon was not convinced by the ceasefire deal.

Each side is trying to secure what it holds.

“Russia delayed agreeing on such a deal with the US until it made sure that the regime’s siege of Aleppo was firm and, ahead of the cease­fire, the regime intensified its air strikes against rebel-held areas in Idlib,” noted Lucas.

Opposition forces also needed a break from regime bombardment to consolidate control in areas they hold and Lebanon’s Hezbollah mili­tants needed a period to breathe, argued Lucas.

Kurdish militants of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), who have agreed to observe the ceasefire, wel­comed the lull following the Turk­ish bombardment of their positions. At the same time, the Turks, contin­ued Lucas, will use the opportunity to consolidate the presence of the rebels they back in the area.

“Although no side is keen on maintaining the ceasefire, no one wants to fire the first shot and be blamed for the ceasefire’s collapse,” he said.

No One in Winning Position

Despite the general lack of will to find a political settlement, no party is capable of winning the war or ex­panding its territory significantly.

“Even with the help of Iran, Hez­bollah, Iraqi and Afghan Shia mi­litias, the Syrian regime does not have enough manpower to expand,” Lucas said. “The rebels, on the other hand, have the manpower but they lack sufficient military capabilities to take on the regime.”

The regime, backed by the Rus­sians, has dominated the Syrian skies with its air power, the bulk of which targeted rebel-held areas.

The US-led coalition focused its airstrikes on ISIS-held areas. Tur­key’s recent airstrikes sought to push back ISIS and YPG presence along Syrian-Turkish border areas. Both the United States and Turkey have avoided bombing regime posi­tions.

A joint US-Russian bombardment of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham positions could tilt the balance of power in the regime’s favor in northern Syria. The side that would fill the vacuum in ISIS-held areas once the militants are forced to evacuate them would also benefit from the US-Russian deal.

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Nope! As all Obama’s COH ,it was another agreement that did not have “punitive” and “coercive”measures against the regime. ONLY RUSSIA’S WORDS(promises) that are ZERO( 0).
    ———————————————————————————————————————————–
    And ALL OPPOSITION should move HQs from former places. At least advancing from “perfect targets” to “Russian Roulette” . I have some reports that some of the groups already did it!
    ———————————————————————————————————————————–
    And from another point of view, FSA -Turkey advanced silently in W Aleppo. The line Azaz -Marea appears 90% secured. Good job! Soon in Eastern Aleppo towards Al-Bab!
    I like it because of the regime siege against Aleppo civilians ; from regime encircling Aleppo will look similar as Turkey encircling regime in Aleppo(at least on 3 directions because one is disputed by FSA groups+ JFS +regime.
    ————————-
    And better news from S.Syria.Southern front became serious!It uses big artillery against the regime right now!

  2. Mark ‏@markito0171 43m
    Syrian opposition groups statement: if sectarian and ethnic cleansing continue in al-Wa’ar #Homs, cease-fire is over.

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