US Audio Analysis: Worried Republicans Head Towards a Brokered Convention

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PHOTO: Donald Trump and Ted Cruz could be heading to a fight at the Republican convention — but will either man win?


The University of Birmingham’s Adam Quinn speaks to the BBC World Service about the significance of Tuesday’s primaries in Wisconsin for the Republican and Democratic races for the White House.

His analysis parallels that of EA’s Scott Lucas (see separate Audio Analysis) about the increasing likelihood of a brokered Republican convention:

I think that it’s very, very difficult — probably impossible — for any other candidate to overtake Donald Trump before the convention. But I think it’s possible, and indeed likely, that Donald Trump won’t get a majority of delegates either.

Listen to interview

There is good reason why so many people in the Republican Party are uneasy about their frontrunner. This is an unprecedently unpopular candidate. Seventy percent of female voters say they view him unfavourably. He has a “-39” rating among the general electorate.

What a lot of people are concerned about is that if they go into the general election with this guy as their candidate, not only will he lose but he may be a lead weight around the party in all the other offices they are running for.

But is Ted Cruz a better option for the GOP?

The argument they are going to have to have is that in the extraordinary circumstances, with an interloper like Donald Trump with the negative ratings and unpredictability, is whether they take the only other option available to them.

How about another candidate from the brokered convention?

The issue is, “Will the candidates who have been running for months or years for this office see it as acceptable that someone who has done none of that steps in?”

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