PHOTO: Donald Trump celebrates but “Republican Party is in serious trouble”
After his victories in five states on Tuesday night, Donald Trump is calling himself “the presumptive Republican nominee” for the Presidency.
Well, he would, of course, and he is in a strong position to claim that nomination, as my colleague Adam Quinn points out.
Still, it isn’t a certainty, with a key contest in Indiana next week and the biggest battle of them all in California on June 7. If the anti-Trump forces can muster a win — most likely Senator Ted Cruz in Indiana — then they will check Trump’s quest for a majority before the Republican convention in July.
However, there are far bigger issues for the Republican Party and for the US. Can Trump defeat Hillary Clinton in November? I don’t think so, and that’s only the beginning of the GOP’s problems.
With a candidate that the Republican leadership dislikes, the GOP will have to figure out how to win Congressional races and hold their majority without a “coat-tail” effect from the Presidential race. And this is a party which is badly split over ideology, economics, religion, and social issues — in short, an identity crisis.
I chatted with BBC World Service and BBC Radio Foyle about all of this on Wednesday:
BBC World Service: Listen to broadcast, with interview from 29:29
BBC Radio Foyle: Listen to discussion
The Republican Party is in serious trouble. Most Republicans stayed at home last night — less than 10% of eligible voters turned out, compared to 15 to 25% in earlier primaries.
Those people who support Trump, they’ll go to the wall for him. Those who don’t like Trump — the problem is that they don’t see an alternative. That does not bode well for the Convention, whether or not Trump has a majority of delegates, and it certainly does not bode well for the general election in November.
