US Audio Analysis: A “Super Tuesday” Coronation for Hillary — and Also for Trump?

PHOTO: Donald Trump with Hillary and Bill Clinton

Super Tuesday has arrived. For both Republicans and Democrats, there will be 12 State and territory contests today to help determine the nominees in November’s Presidential election.

I have spoken with several BBC outlets about the possibilities of the day.

BBC WM: Listen from 49:45
BBC Radio 5 Live: Listen from 42:45
BBC Wales: Listen from 1:11.40
BBC Three Counties: Listen from 1:34.50
BBC Leeds: Listen from 39:16
BBC Foyle: Listen from 22:26

Ahead of the excitement, there are some confident assessments that can be made:

1. Hillary Clinton will effectively wrap up the Democratic nomination tonight. For all the merits of Senator Bernie Sanders and his campaign, the race will only be kept alive if he wins a state outside the Northeast — Minnesota or Colorado are the best possibilities.

2. I would not have thought this a week ago, but Donald Trump is on the verge of the Republican nomination.

Senator Marco Rubio is the Republican establishment’s last hope to stop Trump and Senator Ted Cruz, both of whom are seen as unelectable v. Clinton. But Rubio has to win at least one state and probably two to have any chance of being a viable alternative — the key states to watch are Virginia, Georgia, and Oklahoma.

As for Cruz, likely victory in his home state of Texas will keep him going into March. But unless he can find another win elsewhere — best chances are neighboring states of Oklahoma or Arkansas — his chances are on life support.

3. It’s looking better and better for Clinton and the Democrats against a fragmented Republican Party and a likely candidate who divides rather than unites Americans. Trump has succeeded because of the multiple opponents in a chaotic process, but in a 1-on-1 contest, can he really find the blocs — women, African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, voters in the “center” — to win a majority?

There’s a more personal take in the BBC Three Countries interview about the prospects of a Trump Presidency:

In my unbiased academic view, Trump is a thug, he’s a bully, he’s a narcissist, and he’s dangerous.

A take-away line, from the chat with BBC 5 Live:

I play out a Trump victory in my nightmares. But barring the unforeseen, such as a major Clinton scandal, it won’t happen.

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Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics at the University of Birmingham and editor-in-chief of EA WorldView. He is a specialist in US and British foreign policy and international relations, especially the Middle East and Iran. Formerly he worked as a journalist in the US, writing for newspapers including the Guardian and The Independent and was an essayist for The New Statesman before he founded EA WorldView in November 2008.


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