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Syria Audio Analysis: Putin’s Anti-Turkey Strategy After Russian Jet Downed

Syria Audio Analysis: Putin’s Anti-Turkey Strategy After Russian Jet Downed
November 24
22:15 2015

PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday


After Turkey shot down a Russian jet fighter near the Turkish-Syrian border on Tuesday, killing two pilots, what is President Vladimir Putin going to do?

I spoke with BBC Coventry on Tuesday afternoon to reassure that it is not World War III, as Putin is not going to make a direct military response. Instead, he will try to split countries like the US, Britain, and France from Turkey, claiming that Ankara is an “accomplice” of the Islamic State.

Listen from 1:17.45

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About Author

Scott Lucas

Scott Lucas

Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics at the University of Birmingham and editor-in-chief of EA WorldView. He is a specialist in US and British foreign policy and international relations, especially the Middle East and Iran. Formerly he worked as a journalist in the US, writing for newspapers including the Guardian and The Independent and was an essayist for The New Statesman before he founded EA WorldView in November 2008.

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14 Comments

  1. Barbar
    Barbar November 25, 08:49

    JaN yesterday released a 22min video of the campaign to capture Abu Al-Dhuhour Airbase in Idlib, which after a prolonged siege finally fell to them on 9th Sept. 2015 during a duststorm. 42 SAA prisoners taken are [not actually] shown being executed after a swap offer was allegedly refused:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmomfyAM4ks

    Reply to this comment
    • Tundra
      Tundra November 25, 10:34

      I’d be surprised if they had actually shown the execution. Their manhaj is against showing gory staged massacres. They also want to keep their behaviour distinctive from IS.

      Reply to this comment
      • Barbar
        Barbar November 25, 12:50

        … and there was naïve me thinking this aspect of their Manhaj was more about staying sweet with their Yanki distribution channels YT, FB and Twitter. 😀

        Reply to this comment
        • Tundra
          Tundra November 25, 13:05

          Their accounts and videos get regularly suspended regardless, even if they show nothing graphic, so I doubt they care about community guidelines.
          In fact, @SHMM_10 has stayed up unusually long. The videos usually get taken down within 24 hours, if not sooner though.

          Reply to this comment
  2. Andre De Angelis
    Andre De Angelis November 25, 12:26

    Scott,

    I agree that this is not going to lead to WWIII. In the scheme of things, it’s not going to lead to a war between Russia and NATO.

    You are accusing the Russians of being deceptive, but you claim that the Turks attacked the Russian bomber because they were bombing Turkmen. Yet Turkey claims their reason for firing at the Russian plane was due to air space violations.

    Furthermore, the area was taken by Al Qaeda johadists in March. March.http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2015/3/12/syrian-rebels-recapture-strategic-village-in-latakia

    So who’s lying?

    Speaking of rebels, do you regard Al Nusra as the rebels. You seem include them as the legitimate opposition to Assad who should be supported and protected, even though they are essentially Al Qaeda and were spawned from the same roots as ISIS,

    Turkey’s support for ISIS is now out in the open and that puts NATO in a very difficult position.

    I also have to dispute your claim that Turkey regarded Russia as a threat is absurd. Russia posed no threat to Turkey, though that may change thanks to Turkey’s irrational behavior.

    Reply to this comment
    • Barbar
      Barbar November 25, 12:43

      Russia is obviously and only a substantial threat to the terrorists Turkey is sending into Syria and supplying to fight the Syrian government, which is what Erdogan is reacting to, while falsely claiming to be about protecting Turkey’s border … a joke in seriously poor taste as it is by his own design non-existent for IS & Co.

      Scott, like Erdogan stuck in a furious lust for regime-change, supports any terrorism directed against Syria, so unsurprisingly follows his hypocrisy here.

      Reply to this comment
    • Scott Lucas
      Scott Lucas Author November 25, 15:10

      Andre,

      Jabhat al-Nusra has not had a primary position in the rebel advance in northeastern Latakia Province. The article you cite makes clear that al-Nusra was only of a number of factions involved — further information easily establishes that Ahrar al-Sham and Free Syrian Army-linked units, including Turkmen groups, are more significant.

      S.

      Reply to this comment
  3. Kevin
    Kevin November 25, 16:31

    What would Russia’s response be if Turkey started bombing ethnic Russians right on the Russian border and violated their airspace a dozen times while they were doing it? The hypocrisy here is hilarious.

    Reply to this comment
    • Barbar
      Barbar November 25, 20:34

      What Russian border do you propose Turkey should be bombing?

      Reply to this comment
      • Kevin
        Kevin November 25, 20:51

        Guess you don’t understand the concept of a hypothetical scenario. So what do you think Russia’s response would be if Turkey or any other country starting bombing ethnic Russians close to the Russian border in a hypothetical scenario?

        Did Russia not just use a made up scenario involving ethnic Russians to launch an illegal invasion and annex sovereign territory? In that scenario ethnic Russians weren’t even being bombed and the threat of violence against them was blatantly exaggerated to justify their illegal, imperial invasion.

        Reply to this comment
        • Barbar
          Barbar November 25, 21:01

          No need to stress your head with hypotheticals, Kevin, just get it around the fact that Russia is bombing terrorists inside Syria at the request of the government there, perfectly legally.

          Reply to this comment
          • Kevin
            Kevin November 25, 21:14

            Name a terrorist attack committed by the turkmen “terrorists” that Russia was bombing yesterday.

            Reply to this comment
          • Barbar
            Barbar November 26, 09:16

            Here’s the Pentagovernment definition, Kevin:

            “terrorism” means activities with the following characteristics:

            1. Involve acts dangerous to human life that violate federal or state law;

            2. Appear intended (i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (ii) to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination or kidnapping;

            https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/investigate/terrorism/terrorism-definition

            … which is practical laundry list of what they and Tayyip pay their stooges to do in Syria!

            You should try taking Putin’s money to do this in your ‘Homeland’ and see how long it takes to get bombed. Good luck!

            Reply to this comment

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