PHOTO: Russian fighters and bombers lined up on runway on airbase in western Syria
A month ago the blog Live Journal published a comprehensive analysis establishing the extent of the Russian military intervention in Syria. Using material on social media — from photos of warplanes and armored vehicles to the on-line posts of Russian soldiers and their wives — the author, Ruslan Leviev, summarized:
our team believes that currently Russian marines have been moved to Syria to guard and strengthen the Tartus depot as well as the airbase close to Latakia. We believe infantry does not take part in the fighting. However, we believe that Russian vehicles with Russian crews do go into battle.
On Sunday, Live Journal considered the subsequent escalation of Russian operations, including bombing, in a two-part entry (Part 1 and Part 2). Among the findings:
The Warplanes Enter Syria
*Using pre-September shipment of humanitarian cargo by Russian planes, Moscow used the pretext of transport of aid to fly in military equipment, probably including jet fighters and attack helicopters.
Fighters and bombers at the Humaimah base at Basel al-Assad Airport in Latakia Province, late September:
*Russian jet fighters were spotted as early as September 20 flying into Humaimam.
A fighter flying into Humaimam on September 28:
A Su-24 “Fencer” fighter, with its Russian red star insignia and registration number painted over:
*A day before the initial Russian bombing on September 30, an Il-20/Il-22 drone was filmed on a reconnaissance mission over Homs Province:
Leviev summarizes the Russian deployment:
4 Su-30SM Flanker-C, 4-6 Su-34 Fullback bombers (at least two returned to Russia on October 1)), 12 Su-25 Frogfoot close air support jets, 12 Su-24 Fencer bombers, 4-6 Mi-24 Hind helicopters.
From this list, the Syrian Arab Air Force fields only Su-24 Fencers and Mi-24 Hinds (the export variant Mi-25 Hind D).
The Airstrikes
Leviev carefully documents that the Russian air force hit opposition areas, rather than the Islamic State, including attacks on residential districts that killed civilians.
The initial airstrikes on September 30, concentrated on opposition-held areas (in yellow):
Su-25 jet fighters over Hama Province:
A strike on opposition-held Talbiseh in Homs Province, where activists said at least 50 people were killed:
A Russia 24 TV image “confessing” to the Talbiseh attack, with the town spelled as “Телль-Биса”:
Video of the civilian casualties in Talbiseh:
Location of the strike on a residential area:
Images from Russia Ministry of Defense video, geolocated as the camp of a rebel faction in Latameneh in Hama Province:
“Dumb Bombs”
Leviev gathers images establishing that some of the Russian jets are using unguided bombs, such as the OFAB-250-270 fragmentation bomb seen in this image from a Russia TV report:
Still from Russia Today of unguided OFAB-250 bombs under a Su-24 or Su-25 jet fighter:
Changing the Story
Leviev comments in the afterword on how quickly Russian propaganda can shift from one deception to another as it pursues military operations:
A mere month ago a national TV channel “Russia 24” reported that the info on Russian troops deployment to Syria was lies for PR and money….Eight days before the first air strikes, pro-Kremlin media published articles saying that the reports of Russian planes in Syria were lies and a smear campaign against [President Vladimir] Putin.
