PHOTO: Russian SU-30 all-purpose fighter jet — 4 are now at an expanding airbase in western Syria


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A secret US intelligence assessment, provided to the White House, predicts that Russia will soon order military strikes in Syria to prop up the Assad regime.

Through September, Russia has expanded an airbase in western Syria, bringing in 28 advanced fighter jets, about 25 attack and transport helicopters, and a strategic airlifter. It has also provided advanced armored vehicles for the battlefield and deployed several hundred troops as “advisors” for regime militia.

Earlier this week, US Secretary of State John Kerry said that the issues over the Russian escalation had been discussed between Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoygu on September 18.

On Thursday, Carter shifted the line, cautioning that Russian airstrikes on rebels “could amount to “pouring gasoline on the civil war in Syria — that is certainly not productive from our point of view”. Yesterday the US Central Command, overseeing military operations in the region, expressed “great concern” that “the Russians [might] take action against the moderate opposition, instead of the true terrorists of ISIL [the Islamic State] and [the Islamist faction Jabhat] al-Nusrah”.

However, a leading analyst of the Syrian conflict, Thomas Pierret, noted the absence of the word “consequences” assessed that Washington was “de facto okaying Russian airstrikes against any target”.

The latest US intelligence assessment was given to President Obama as part of briefings for his meeting on Monday with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in New York.

“The jets are ready to strike at any moment,” said a US official. “There is nothing stopping them from delivering airstrikes at this point.”

“The equipment we’ve seen out there is not strictly defensive,” said another American official.

Meanwhile, a Syrian journalist points to another sign of Russia’s involvement — and the Assad regime’s gratitude:


Claims: At Least 14 Killed in Attack on Playground in Homs

Claims are circulating that at least 14 and up to 20 people have been killed and more injured in a regime rocket attack on a children’s playground in the Wa’ar section of Homs city.

Photographs and videos show injured children and blood-stained ground.


Video: Kafranbel Protesters on Russian Intervention and US Inaction

The protesters of Kafranbel in Idlib Province, known for their banners, express their view of Russia’s military intervention and the lack of US action:


Baath Party Official Kidnapped in Southeast

Syrian officials have confirmed that the Secretary of the Baath Party in Suweida Province in southwest Syria has been kidnapped.

Contact with Shibli Jannoud was lost on Wednesday morning. His car was found burnt later in the day.


Leading Journalist: Evacuation of Rebels from Zabadani Begins, Despite No Official Confirmation

No one is officially confirming a six-month ceasefire agreement covering the rebel-held town of Zabadani in Damascus Province and two regime enclaves in Idlib Province, but a prominent Aleppo journalist and activist is anticipating the evacuation of rebels from Zabadani:

Erhaim later amended the tweet to make clear that rebels have not yet arrived, but preparations are underway to receive them.


Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Admits Failure to Take Zabadani, Supports Russian Intervention

In a lengthy speech on Friday night, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah admitted the failure of a high-profile 86-day offensive, alongside the Syrian military, to take the town of Zabadani.

On July 3, the Hezbollah-regime attacks began, hoping for a quick victory to offset rebel advances elsewhere in Syria and to build up Hezbollah’s buffer zone from the Lebanese border to Damascus.

Nasrallah asserted that, only two weeks after the offensive began, “the militants were in a weak position and the regime and its allies were in control of all the hills neighboring the city”. However, he said that the takeover of Zabadani — captured by the Free Syrian Army in January 2012 — was delayed when “the Foua and Kafraya/Zabadani equation was proposed”.

In August, rebels stepped up attacks on the besieged regime enclaves of al-Fu’ah and Kafraya, north of Idlib city in northwest Syria. The challenge led to ceasefire talks, conducted by Iranian officials on behalf of the Assad regime, covering both Zabadani and the enclaves.

Last week, another temporary ceasefire was announced. Reports followed of a six-month agreement, permitting evacuation of rebels and remaining civilians from Zabadani in return for the departure of women, children, and men over 50 from the regime enclaves.

Nasrallah denied the account of the discussions, as Iran “was not entitled to take any decision”. However, he said attacks on Zabadani had been halted because Hezbollah “saw it as a chance to aid the besieged people of Foua and Kafraya”.

The Hezbollah leader maintained that the US and its Arab and European allies had failed in a war on the Assad regime and in their strategy against the Islamic State, causing a refugee crisis across Europe.

Nasrallah welcomed the recent escalation of Russian military intervention to bolster the Assad regime: “The Russian stance was strongly supportive to Syria since the beginning, and it has supported it through media and with weapons….The Americans as well as some Arab countries have wagered on convincing Moscow to abandon Syria but all these attempts have failed.”

He continued, “We welcome any power that contributes in eliminating the threats on Syria and the region, and Russia is playing a positive role which will have a positive outcome, God willing.”


US Military Admits: Our Trained Fighters Handed Over Weapons to Jabhat al-Nusra

The American military admitted on Friday night that a group of rebels, trained by the US to fight the Islamic State, had turned over their weapons to the Islamist faction Jabhat al-Nusra.

On Monday, reports said the commander of the men — estimated at 50 to 75 — had handed over the arms soon after the group entered northern Syria from Turkey. The commander, named as Anas Obeid, said he would have nothing to do with the $500 million American program, launched in autumn 2014 but plagued with a series of failures.

On Wednesday, the US military denied that any “defection” or handover of weapons had occurred. However, last night a statement explained:

U.S. Central Command was notified at approximately 1 p.m. today that a commander of a New Syrian Forces element operating in Syria surrendered some of his unit’s Coalition-issued equipment to a suspected Al Nusra Front intermediary purportedly in exchange for safe passage within their operating area.

A CENTCOM spokesperson said the unit had contacted the US-led coalition to say it “gave six pick-up trucks and a portion of their ammunition” — about 25% of their equipment — to Nusra in return for safe passage.

CENTCOM said its statement on Wednesday was based on an analysis of an image in a Jabhat al-Nusra tweet and reports from the US-trained fighters “that all personnel and equipment were under NSF control”.

The group led by Anas Obaid was the second inserted into Aleppo Province. In late July, a group of 54 fighters was soon attacked by Jabhat al-Nusra, with members killed or abducted. Last week, CENTCOM commander General Lloyd Austin said “only four or five” of the men were still in the field.


Rebels of Jaish al-Islam: We Have Not Declared War on Russia

The leading rebel faction Jaish al-Islam has denied that it has declared war on Russia over Moscow’s military escalation inside Syria.

Earlier this week claims circulated that Jaish al-Islam, based outside Damascus, had issued the declaration.

However, on Friday the faction said it was founded “to fight the secular dictatorial regime” of President Assad and then “the ISIS organization which is backed by Bashar al-Assad to help him in his criminality and war against the Sunni sect”, as well as Assad’s allies Hezbollah and Iran.

Still Jaish al-Islam implictly warned Moscow: “We will fight everyone coming to Syria in order to help this criminal [Assad] destroying our country.”