PHOTO: President Assad on Russia Today in interview broadcast on Wednesday


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Analysis: How Russia Justifies Military Intervention — The Case of the “Chechen Islamic State Terrorists”
Video Feature: President Assad’s Interview on Russian State TV


UPDATE 1400 GMT: Russia’s military Deputy Chief of Staff says there are no plans to create an airbase in Syria.

However, 2anything could happen”, Nikolai Bogdanovsky told reporters on Wednesday.


In the latest phase of Russia’s campaign for a “political solution” that will keep Bashar al-Assad in power — at least as part of a “transitional governing authority” — Syria’s President has been interviewed by Russian State TV.

See Syria Video Feature: President Assad’s Interview on Russian State TV

Appearing on Russia Today, Assad immediately joined the Russian initiative for high-level discussions with major powers, including Iran, the US, and European States. He referred to the last set of Russian-held talks — Moscow 2 — between a regime delegation and a selection of other political figures in April 2015:

Since the beginning of the crisis we adopted the dialogue approach, and there were many rounds of dialogue between Syrians in Syria, in Moscow, and in Geneva. Actually, the only step that has been made or achieved was in Moscow 2, not in Geneva, not in Moscow 1, and actually it’s a partial step, it’s not a full step, and that’s natural because it’s a big crisis. You cannot achieve solutions in a few hours or a few days.

It’s a step forward, and we are waiting for Moscow 3. I think we need to continue the dialogue between the Syrian entities, political entities or political currents, in parallel with fighting terrorism in order to achieve or reach a consensus about the future of Syria. So, that’s what we have to continue.

Assad asserted, “Only through dialogue and the political process can we reach political goals that the Syrians should set for themselves.” At the same time, he insisted that he would not give up the Presidency:

The President comes through the people and through elections and, if he goes, he goes through the people. He doesn’t go as a result of an American decision, a Security Council decision, the Geneva conference or the Geneva communiqué.

After the Moscow 2 talks, which ended with little agreement on a way forward, Russia shifted its strategy in late June towards a conference of regional and international States. Joined by Iran, it proposed discussions on a transition in which Assad would retain his position. The effort collapsed suddenly in mid-August when Saudi Arabia — humiliating Russia by making the announcement in Moscow at a joint press conference — insisted that the Syrian President must depart before negotiations developed.

This month, Russia has revived its initiative by twinning it with a display of military intervention propping up the Assad regime. Moscow has sent in equipment and supplies to expand an airbase in western Syria. It has despatched battlefield armor, including infantry fighting vehicles. An estimated 650 Russian troops had been sent to Syria to “advise” President Assad’s militia; many of the Russians are near the frontline with the rebels in northeast Latakia Province.

Assad’s role in the campaign, through the interview, is the announcement that the international conference — “Geneva 3” — will be set up by the “dialogue” of the “Moscow 3” meeting between regime officials and the selected “opposition” group.

Elsewhere in the interview, Assad echoed the lines of Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. Most importantly, he supported the Russian promotion of an international coalition inside Syria — again, using the leverage of Moscow’s increasing intervention — to fight the Islamic State:

We think this alliance should act in different areas, but to fight on the ground first. Naturally, this alliance should consist of states which believe in fighting terrorism and believe that their natural position should be against terrorism.

The President attempted to press “Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Jordan” into acceptance, calling on them to drop support for rebels: “The person supporting terrorism cannot be the same person fighting terrorism.”

Assad also repeated Putin’s linkage of foreign backing of “terrorists” inside Syria to the surge of Syrian refugees moving into Europe:

If you are worried about them, stop supporting terrorists. That’s what we think regarding the crisis. This is the core of the whole issue of refugees.

Assad played down the role of Iran in the current campaign — “there is no Iranian initiative” — while playing up the involvement of Egypt:

This [Syrian-Egyptian] relationship has never ceased to exist, but we feel comfortable about improving relations between Russia and Egypt. At the same time, there is a good, strong and historical relation between Moscow and Damascus, so it is natural for Russia to feel comfortable for any positive development in relations between Syria and Egypt.

Asked about the current state of the Syrian military, Assad avoided his recent admissions of defeats by rebels and problems by manpower. His long, evasive answer concluded: “As for the army, it’s almost exclusively made of Syrians. So, we have reserve forces, and this is what enables us to carry on. There is also determination.”

The Syrian President sidestepped any commitment — despite being asked twice — to discussions of Kurdish autonomy.

Kurdish forces have expanded their hold on territory in northeast Syria since the spring, pushing back the Islamic State. In Hasakah, they are in an uneasy state of shared control of the city with regime forces.

At the end of the interview, Assad was asked, “Were there mistakes on your part? Are there things you regret?”

The President avoided any admission of personal responsibility:

In every state, there are mistakes, and mistakes might be made every day, but these mistakes do not constitute a crucial juncture because they are always there. So what is it that makes these mistakes suddenly lead to the situation we are living in Syria today?

Instead, he put the blame on others for the causes of the uprising:

It was the Iraq war in 2003, when the United States invaded Iraq….

The second point, which might be less crucial, is that when the West adopted terrorism officially in Afghanistan in the early 1980s and called terrorists at that time “freedom fighters”, and then in 2006 when Islamic State appeared in Iraq under American sponsorship and they didn’t fight it.


“Russian Personnel Are Starting to Get People’s Attention in Latakia”

A local journalist in Latakia supports claims of increased Russian military intervention, including supplies for an expanded airbase and housing for up to 1,000 troops, and continues:

There are Russian military personnel based at several places in Latakia province, for example, just north of the Cote d’Azure beach, at a naval base and research facilities site 7km north of Latakia city. Residents and tourists used to walk along the beach south of the naval base, and take dips in the water. But since early September, regime checkpoints and security forces are stopping anyone from getting anywhere near the base, without saying why.

For the most part, the Russians live in pre-fabricated living units. Most of these pre-fabricated homes are in Humaymim, near the Basel al-Assad airport, on land known for its orchards and groves at the town’s outskirts.

Inside Latakia city itself, Russians strolling the city’s avenues, sometimes in a military uniform, but sometimes not, are now starting to get people’s attention. We didn’t see this sort of thing before.


Kurdish Government in Hasakah Province Decrees “Confiscation of Abandoned Property”

The Kurdish Democratic Party (PYD) government in Hasakah Province issued a decree on Tuesday authorizing the confiscation of property belonging to residents who have left the province.

“The confiscated property will not be returned, unless the self-administration issues a specific decision stipulating it,” Jad al-Hasakawi, an Arab member of the Youth Union of Al-Hasakah, told Syria Direct.

He said the PYD will use the confiscated property to house fighters with its armed wing, the YPG.

Hasakawi estimated that 30% of Hasakah’s population has left the province because of fighting with the Islamic State.

A Hasakah journalist offered a different viewpoint expressing confidence that all property will be returned in the case of a resident’s return..

The decision aims to “protect the possessions of residents who have left from vandalism and theft, and to repurpose them in service of the community,” Zara Masto, the president of the Kurdish Walati News Network, said.


Western Diplomats Reject Claim of Russian Proposal in 2012 for “Assad to Step Aside”

[UPDATE: The Kremlin has now denied that it ever put forward a plan in which President Assad would leave power “at some point”.

Spokesman Dmitri Peskov said:

This can be very easily checked by date — from the very beginning of the Syrian crisis Russia has repeated at various levels that only the Syrian people and only by means of democratic procedures can determine their future.

I can only confirm once again that Russia is not engaged in regimes’ change, and Russia has never practiced offering graceful or disgraceful stepping down scenarios.

]

Senior Western diplomats have rejected the claim of a Russian proposal in February 2012 in which President Assad would step aside “at some point” in a political transition.

The claim was made last week by Martti Ahtisaari, the former President of Finland, who said that Western powers ignored the three-point because they expected Assad to soon fall.

Ahtissari said the Russian Ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, tabled the proposal in a meeting of the envoys of the five permanent powers on the UN Security Council:

He said three things: One — we should not give arms to the opposition. Two — we should get a dialogue going between the opposition and Assad straight away. Three — we should find an elegant way for Assad to step aside.

The Western diplomats said on Tuesday that Churkin may have floated the idea to test reaction, but they emphasized that Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior officials never put forward the plan.

A spokesman for Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013, said, “Frankly, there was a lot that the Russians would say, especially Churkin, that Putin would overrule.”

Gérard Araud, the French Ambassador to the UN in 2012, said the Russians “never” put an offer on the table for Assad’s departure and added, “Anyway, Churkin wouldn’t have been the channel.”

The then-German Ambassador to the UN, Peter Wittig, noted that Russia vetoed a UN resolution earlier in February, putting forth an Arab League “peace plan”: “In the end, what counts is how the Russians acted in the Security Council. I am sure it was a decision of President Putin himself.”

Wittig added, “If Churkin ever had the thoughts Ahtisaari ascribes to him — ‘an elegant way for Assad to step aside’ — then it did not meet the litmus test in Moscow.”

Robert Ford, the US Ambassdor to Syria at the time, said that Russia gave no indication of such a plan at the crucial international conference in Geneva in June:

According to Ford, Lavrov’s delegation consistently hit three points: that Assad was leading a legitimate government, that outside powers should not compel him to exit, and that the Syrian dictator was fighting dangerous terrorists.

Western diplomats said earlier this week that Assad’s forces had already carried out multiple massacres by February 2012, and that the main opposition groups refused to accept any proposal that left him in power.

By February 2012, the Assad regime had turned to massive bombing of urban areas, such as the city of Homs, in an effort to push back the opposition and rebels.


State Media: 20 Killed, 100 Injured in Rocket Attacks in Aleppo

State media says 20 people were killed and 100 injured in “terrorist” rocket attacks on regime-held parts of Aleppo city on Tuesday.

A police source said rockets fell on New Aleppo, Hamadaniya, and the Project 1070 Apartments.


Citizen Journalist: 76-Day Rebel Resistance in Zabadani Has to End in Death

The 76-day resistance to a Hezbollah-regime offensive on Zabadani, northwest of Damascus, has to end in death for rebels in the town, according to a local citizen journalist.

Abu Adi told Syria Direct:

The fates of the Zabadani rebels and the opposition’s military leaders in the area are one and the same: death.

There are only two other options: either a miracle from God or the breaking of the siege from outside Zabadani, which I think is unlikely since everyone has betrayed us.

As for the civilians in Zabadani, they fled to nearby Madaya and are being subjected to regime bombardment there.

Hezbollah and Assad forces launched the assault on July 3, hoping for a quick victory to take attention from rebel successes elsewhere in Syria as well as the consolidation of a buffer zone from the Lebanese border to Damascus. However, the attackers have been held up for more than two months by the unexpected level of opposition.

Abu Adi said, “Zabadani is now completely cut off from surrounding areas; there is no exit or tunnel.”