Syria Daily, June 7: Can Assad Make a Last Stand in Idlib Province?

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PHOTO: Mahambel and Basanqul have fallen to the rebel advance in the Idlib-Hama corridor — could Latakia be next?

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Analysis: Iran’s Economic Stakes in the Assad Regime


Syria’s rebels continued to make significant advances on Saturday in the Idlib-Hama corridor, putting the question of a last stand in Idlib Province — and thus a halt to possible opposition moves towards Latakia in western Syria, Hama city in the center, or Aleppo city in the northwest — to President Assad and his forces.

In 48 hours, the Jaish al-Fatah rebel coalition has swept along the M4 highway west of Ariha. They have taken the military compound at al-Qiyasat, the town of Mahambel, and a series of villages and hills. Syrian forces have put up little resistance, fleeing — apparently in some disorder — along the highway towards the town of Frikka.

By Saturday afternoon, Jaish al-Fatah had moved within 3 km (2 miles) of Frikka, capturing the Sheikh Khattab mount.

See Syria Daily and Videos, June 6: Rebels Advance Rapidly Across Idlib and Hama Provinces

If Frikka, the last significant regime position in Idlib along the M4 cannot be held, then rebels are likely to continue through the al-Ghab Plain into Hama Province. Jaish al-Fatah already holds about 1/3 of the plain, taken during their offensive after the capture of the city of Jisr al-Shughour in late April.

The rebels could also strike towards Latakia Province, a base of support for the Assad regime. On Saturday, fighters moved along the Nabi Younis mountain, only 3 km from the major regime encampment at Joureen.

In Idlib, the regime now holds only Frikka, a pair of enclaves north of Idlib city, and the isolated Abu Duhour airbase in the east of the province.

A report from the M4 highway, with images of destroyed regime vehicles and bodies of troops (Warning — Graphic):

A tour of Basanqul, with rebels pointing out aid taken from the Red Crescent and slain fighters — “These were mercenaries for Bashar al-Assad” (Warning — Graphic):

Syrian troops fleeing Mahambel:


US Confirms Airstrike on Islamic State Near Rebel Frontlines in Aleppo Province

US Central Command has confirmed an airstrike on the Islamic State near rebel frontlines in northern Aleppo Province.

Central Command said the attack, one of 11 that it acknowledged from 6 a.m. Saturday to 6 a.m. Sunday, was “near Aleppo” and hit “an ISIL tactical unit, destroying an ISIL ant-aircraft artillery piece and an ISIL fighting position”.

Media activists with rebels said on Saturday that the attack was close to Sarwan, the center of a two-week Islamic State offensive against rebels. Unconfirmed claims said the attack killed eight Islamic State fighters and wounded 20 (see earlier entry).

The strike is the first by the US on the Islamic State as the militants fight Syrian rebels.

Elsewhere, the US carried out two airstrikes, destroying four Islamic State positions and a vehicle, “near Hasakah”. The raids came as Syrian forces

There were three US strikes near Raqqa, the Islamic State’s central position in northern Syria, and five near the Kurdish center of Kobane.

Over the 24-hour period, the US carried out 11 missions against the Islamic State in Iraq.


Regime Barrel-Bombing of 20 Locations Across Syria on Sunday

Syrian barrel-bombing is being reported across the country, including an attack on Zaafarana in Homs Province that killed at least 10 people.

Footage of an assault, from the hovering of a helicopter to the bombing to the aftermath, on Maarat al-Nu’man in Idlib Province:

An activist lists the strikes: Idlib Province — Maarat al-Nu’man, Ihsim, Balshon, Marata, Kafrshlaya, Kansafra, Iblin, Basamis, al-Qiyasat, Mahambel; #Homs Province: Talbisah, al-Zaafarana, Deirful; Damascus Province — Haza; Hama Province — Latamneh; Aleppo Province — Jib al-Qubeh, Mare’, Azaz, Qadi al-Askar, al-Maisar.


Video: Kurds and Free Syrian Army Close on Islamic State in Tel Abyad, Near Turkish Border

A Kurdish-Free Syrian Army force is closing on the Islamic State in the town of Tel Abyad, near a border crossing with Turkey.

The force has been advancing both from the west and east in recent weeks. Capture of Tel Abyad would take a key supply line from the Islamic State and close the gap between Syrian Kurdistan’s Kobane and Cezire cantons.

Kurds moving into a village near Tel Abyad:


Claims: US Warplanes Kill 8, Wound 20 in Attack on Islamic State Near Rebel Frontlines in Aleppo Province

Unconfirmed claims are circulating that eight Islamic State fighters were killed and 20 wounded in the first US-led airstrike on IS positions near their offensive against Syrian rebels.

Media activists with rebel units said on Saturday night that US warplanes had hit the Islamic State in Sawran, the center of fighting since the militants launched their offensive two weeks ago on a 25-km (16-mile) front.

Rebels had criticized the Americans, who have repeatedly attacked the Islamic State in and near Kurdish areas, for not striking the militants in northern Aleppo. Meanwhile, the Syrian air force has been attacking rebel-held towns such as Mare’ and Tel Rifaat.

Aftermath of a regime airstrike on civilian areas of Mare’ on Sunday:


Video: Rebels Claim Attack Killing 10 Hezbollah in Western Aleppo

Rebels claim 10 Hezbollah fighters were killed in this attack on a building in al-Rashidin in western Aleppo city:


Reports: Syrian Troops Push Islamic State Back From Hasakah City

Regime forces have pushed the Islamic State back from the outskirts of Hasakah city in northeast Syria, after more than a week of attacks by the militants.

The city’s power plant, the al-Ahdath prison, and the villages of al-Watwatiyah and al-Mishtal Al-Zura’yya were reclaimed by the Syrian military.

The Islamic State launched its assault in late May near and in the provincial capital of Hasakah, taking checkpoints and villages and fighting for control of the power plant and prison. The militants briefly entered southeast Hasakah before they were pushed back.

See Syria Daily, June 5: Will the Islamic State Defeat Assad Forces and Kurds in Hasakah?

Syrian forces have been supported by Kurdish YPG units and Assyrian militias, although there have been some reports that the Kurds are hesitating to become fully involved alongside Assad’s troops.

Syrian soldiers at the power plant:

SYRIA ARMY HASAKAH

State TV’s report:


Senior Official Rezaei Denies Iran Sending Troops to Syria

The Secretary of the Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezaei, has denied reports that Iran is sending thousands of troops to prop up Syria’s Assad regime amid recent rebel victories.

Rezaie said on Sautrday, “Iran’s policy on Syria crisis has been clearly made from the beginning.”

The head of Iran’s elite Qods Force, General Qassem Soleimani, visited Syria in late May after rebels swept through Idlib Province in the northwest and threatened further moves on Latakia, Hama, or Aleppo.

Drawing on a report from the Iranian paramilitary organization Ansar-e Hezbollah, Arab newspapers claimed Iran was considering the intervention of up to 50,000 Iranian, Iraqi, and Afghan fighters. An Assad regime official said 7,000 had arrived, with a goal of 10,000 to defend Damascus and retake parts of Idlib Province.

See Syria Feature: Is Iran Really Preparing to Send 50,000 Troops to Save Assad?

Rezaei insisted, “Iran’s aid to the regional countries has always been of a humanitarian nature.”

(Cross-posted from Iran Daily)

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76 COMMENTS

  1. Take that, bloody bastards.
    “By our hearts, by our blood, we support you Bashar”? Heh, if that’s what you want, you’ll get it! What’s more appropriate than such a miserable death for you, Assad’s lapdogs?
    Looks like the situation is rapidly changing. Great news. Let’s hope these brainwashed idiots get their butts handed to them: that’s all they deserve.

  2. US bombing of IS in Aleppo is a propaganda victory for them as they can now claim Nusra and the other islamists are US lackeys.SYaaf can now focus heavily on Rebels fighting IS around Aleppo,knowing the US will weaken IS at the same time.Win for the government.US strikes will need to continue though.

    • ISIS could claim that anyways. It is no secret that the FSA and by extension JAN are getting arms and funding from US friendly states (KSA, Turkey).

      ISIS is not fighting SAA in Aleppo. So it is not the case that the SAA cannot take on the rebels because of ISS. In fact ISS is a buffer between SAA and the rebels, protecting Assad.

      With American planes in the air attacking ISIS and protecting the FSA, I doubt SAAF would want to bomb the FSA. I would be surprised if Assad continues to drop bombs on the FSA at the FSA/ISIS front lines.

  3. Are the Quds and revolutionary guards of Iran the same organisation? Or is one part of the other? Also dose Iran have regular army or are the Quds/IRGC its only armed forces? Or is it like Germany with the regular army and the IRGC/Quds is like 2nd ideological army like the SS?

    • Nial, The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) consists of the State Iran with all its organs, eg. the president, the army etc. Khomeini did not succeed to abolish these. On the other hand you have all the Islamic Revolutionary bodies, that live of the state. The IRGC is part of this, the Quds is its elite branch. The IRGC is a post-revolutionary institution. That is, you could demean them opportunists. In Iran you have that continuous schizophrenia where you never know, whether you are dealing with the state or the revolution. The revolution’s aim is to lead the ummah and finally abolish the dominance of the Western world in order to hasten the return of the Mahdi. Ahmadinejad was convinced, that a clash of cultures was desirable for that end. Whether the state or the revolution’s interests prevail depends on current necessity and the interests and convictions of those in power.

    • Quds is like the praetorian guards of the IRGC – an elite sub-force focused on empire building.

      Iran also has the military with its 3 branches. But the military is lead again by revolutionary commanders. Then there is the Basij or the Islamic militia.

      The IRGC (Paasdaran – Paasdar means guard) is the ideological force used to suppress and control the population – like the elite Baathist corp or SS. The military composed of careerists is not trusted for that function, as was shown during the revolutionary days and the Iraqi war that its heart was not there, and when it tried to coup against the mollas in the early days.

      • Further to what has already been said the IRGC, including Quds Force, and the Basij answer directly to the Supreme Leader and are funded from his discretionary funds not from the state budget.

        If there is ever an overt power struggle between the President and/or the Majlis and the supreme Leader we know which side those guys will be on.

        Interesting side note: Quds is the Farsi name for Jerusalem and the supposed ultimate mission of the Quds force is to retake the city from the Israelis.

        Giving these guys a foothold on the Israeli border is just one of the many ways in which the Assad regime contributes to “peace and stability” in the region.

    • Thank you for your answers you three so I get straight it Iranian regime tools compered to German ones would be as follows
      Army=Wehrmacht (officially apolitical troops not indoctrinated the leaders are all yes men like Keitel or believe in it anyway like Dostler)
      IRGC=SS (ideological army loyal to the leader all indoctrinated)
      Quds=Elite SS units
      Basij=SA/Strom Troopers/Brownshirts (shabiha like street thugs and bully boys)
      SAVAK=Gestapo (secret police that love to torture with falanga)

      • Quite accurate NFL. The Savak is now called the SAVAMA. But each branch has its intelligence units, just like in Syria.

        Ian, In Farsi, the name for Jerusalem is Urshalim. Quds or Beit ul Moqaddas is borrowed from Arabic. Nationalist Iranians hate Arabic and anything related to Arabs, and consider them inferior species. No wonder they treat Assad’s troops like refuse.

        There is no Islamic country that rightfully hates Islam more than Iran. That’s because Prophet Mohammad (SAW) was a mass murderer gangster who had his men invade and destroy Iran.

  4. WHY ERDOGAN’S RIGGED ELECTION IS BEING FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN SYRIA

    Uniformed men have been caught with stolen ballots.
    HDP caught many already used votes sneaked into a school in Istanbul. It was the same case in Mus, Erzurum. Then there was the bombing of an HDP rally. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Putin, Khamenei or Assad were to make a big deal about that?

    It sounds just like an Iranian election. Islamists rig elections and steal them from non-Islamist muslims. The difference is that in Tehran the HDP or any opposition group with real differences in opinion would not be allowed to compete. Pre-rigging starts there with the Guardian Council.

    Erdogan’s authoritarian tendencies suggest another Putin, Assad or Khamenei. The only good thing is that his re-election, which requires rigging the vote given unfavorable polls would be bad news for Assad and iran.

    .As the 47th notes, “there are certain Syrians think Erdogan will liberate Syria and world from tyranny if he wins this time. Some Syrians are more excited about the Turkish Elections than Turks themselves.”

    BATTLEFRONTS QUIET THIS MORNING & MAPS

    Karybdis writes: “No significant events happening in : Aleppo, Idlib, Deirezzor, Hasakah, Deraa, etc, so I’ll pick up in the morning.”

    Idlib Area Batttlemap: Having concluded the entire Idlib corridor has fallen to rerbels he offers this new map of the situation further west. News maps will cover the Ghab plains as needed.

    http://img.ly/C0a0

    Kobane Battleman Ex-navy seal Charles Pfarrer has proviced a map with details showing how ISIS is preparing a defense in depth, including mines, for the town on Tal Abyad. He also provides a map of ISIS supply lines into Kobane canton.

    https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer

    NICE VIDEO TREAT FROM IDLIB FRONT

    Dominating the M4 highway, a rebel ATGH crew knocks out two Genocide Regime vehicles in 90 seconds. You get to see other retreating forces on foot trying to make it down the highway. The latter has been littered with dead shabbiha blown out of vehicles.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOBiQjJdC5Y

    ALEPPO

    After US Coalition struck ISIS north of Aleppo, the Genocide Air Force struck liberated areas. Once again advancing rebels round that the Genocide Regime army has stolen most Red Crescent food supplies from civilians.

    • “Erdogan’s authoritarian tendencies suggest another Putin, Assad or Khamenei. The only good thing is that his re-election, which requires rigging the vote given unfavorable polls would be bad news for Assad and iran.”

      He isn’t up for re-election. He was only elected President last year. These are parliamentary elections combined with a referendum on a new constitution.

      I’m surprised these minor details escaped your attention given your encyclopedic knowledge of world events and your historically unprecedented military and political genius.

      • These are parliamentary elections combined with a referendum on a new constitution.

        @Ian – uhh, there is no referendum on a new constitution in this election. Just election for members of parliament.

        Quoting yourself: “I’m surprised these minor details escaped your attention given your encyclopedic knowledge of world events and your historically unprecedented military and political genius.”

        Don’t get too excited. Erdogan will probably fail to change the Constitution, and democracy shall prevail.

        • I stand corrected. If the AKP gets 60% of the seats they can amend the constitution. The electoral system suggests they could do that with well under 50% of the vote.

          • By the way, don’t you have about another dozen diatribes about imaginary pro-Islamist leftists to write to make today’s quota?

          • @Ian — uhh, you can amend the Constitution if you get 66.6% or more of the seats. If you get only 60% of the seats, you can demand a referendum to amend the Constitution. “I am surprised these minor details …”

            Are you in favor of an amended Constitution?

      • Did you in theory it is possible for the Turkish government to reinstate the Caliphate, though its unikley to this, like how the Queen can refuse royal ascent to an act of parliament preventing it from becoming law, thought that last happened in 1707 when Queen Anne did that to the Scotch militia bill.

      • How many Americans would even know Turkey is even holding important elections? Why would I follow closely every election in the world and know the details. It’s like asking a surgeon to fix cars, do electrical details and learn several languages. Erdogan still got a lot at stake. The part about authoritarian tendencies still applies. N’est-ce pas? Likewise the consequences for Assad.

    • At the moment (18.30hrs 40% of boxes are opened) AKP: 44% and HDP (Kurds) above 10%
      The meaning of this: Erdogan can forget a constitutional changing two-thirds majority……………………….

      Hopefully it stays that way.

  5. Once Frikka (or more properly Furaykah) falls, the Jaish alFateh has 3 options.

    If they wish to consolidate a state, they would divert their attention to Aleppo and with the help of US air strikes liberate Aleppo from Assad, while US pounds ISIS and ISIS is pushed back to Raqqa.

    If they wish to bring Assad to his knees quickly, they would launch a major front on Latakia. Once Latakia falls, which is questionable, Assad is history and the Alawites have no choice but essentially to surrender and hand over the government. The Sunni Baathist elements of Assad will en mass defect to ISIS and set up shop in Palmyra/Raqqa/DEZ with the Takfiris and get into the oil and gas business as best they can.

    If the rebels just wish to prolong the war and go for revenge and punishment, then they would move south to Hama and the Shiite / Alawi areas of the Hama plain. This would by far be the worst option, and the bloodiest option. JAN will probably choose this option, while the more saner rebels such as AAS will go for the other options.

    The US should also seriously consider bombing ISIS in Suweida in support of the Druze/FSA. But hey, don’t expect such vision from the see-no-evil commander in charge, and his yes gang, squatting the White House.

    • Furaykah is actually further south in the Ghab plain: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.566305&lon=36.244926&z=12&m=b&show=/25667522/Furaykah

      And boy do you have it backwards. Revenge is sought in Latakia, war’s end in Hama. If the rebels enter Latakia, Alawis will conclude they have no option but to fight to the death. If however the rebels take Hama, the balance of power will tilt irreversibly. Biggest weapons stocks in Syria and reopening of the Homs front = the beginning of the end.

      • Well, Wikimapia shows another Furaykah where Frikka is: http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.757657&lon=36.354790&z=12&m=b&show=/16723123/Frikka

        In Arabic, FR is usually FeR or FaR or FuR. It would not be pronounced as FR.

        I don’t think there are much defenses in Latakia to speak of. And an attack on Latakia will put the coast Alawites in the line of danger, and they are the most militaristic of them all, demanding war, but for others, because their own homes and lands are relatively safe. By bringing the carnage to their backyards, and by them starting to lose their lands, they may come to their senses and sue for peace.

        On the other hand, the Hama plain is a mix of Shiite and Sunnis, who have a history of massacres and extreme bad blood. Vengeance would be the prime motivating factor and not liberation, and we know what that means. And the population is much larger, giving more impetus to carnage. Fortifications are everywhere and that place has been in war for years now.

        Remember the Alawis want a coastal state. They are prepared to give up Hama, get a coastal state, and to fight for another day. But if they lose Latakia, there is nothing to fight for anymore.

        • Latakia has seen a lot of opposition to Assad, not just from local Sunnis but from Alawis as well. Qardaha itself saw clashes between supporters and opponents of Assad. Posing a threat to Latakia will end any Alawi opposition to Assad, as all will rally to defend the province. From Latakia Alawi standpoint, there isn’t much sympathy for Assad as the regime left the coast underdeveloped and impoverished, but they fight for the regime in fear of revenge by it’s victims.

          Alawis of Tartous on the other hand, are much more supportive of the regime. Most NDF in Idlib actually are from Tartous.

          The Alawis don’t want a coastal state, they want to survive. A state just seems to them like the best way to do so.

  6. OMINOUS REPORT FROM ALEPPO

    ….”Ominous” for ISIS and therefore indirectly for the regime:

    Jabha Shamiya & other rebels have agreed to provide co ordinates of #IS positions to #US Coalition jets in Aleppo. Leaders of Ash-Shamiya Front met with #US Coalition officials and requested them to aid them against –Captain Falllujah. Prior to that calls to Centcom for help were not being returned.

    Someone in the White House changed their mind after “pondering” the political risks in a “Do nothing”: position as ISIS and Assad teamed up aginst the rebels nd threatened to drive them out of Aleppo via the same cooperation that succeeded in Deir Ezzor earlier as Obama watched and did nothing..

    Note how–except when ISIS is attacking regime positions– what is bad for ISIS is bad news for Assad. Similarly ISIS benefits greatly from the regime’s continued existence though the geniuses at the White House say, “No. That’s not true.”

    –What happens when Aleppo’s engineering students get to work helping rebels? Check out this photo of an improvised triple cannon bulldozer.

    https://twitter.com/SaiyanSyrian/status/607142480333701120

    WHY WOULD ASSAD SUPPORT ISIS EVEN AFTER TABQA MASSACRE? STRATEGIC REASONS:

    http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/12728.18.0.0/world/terrorism/why-would-assad-support-the-islamic-state

    IDLIB FRONT

    ‘Tall Hamakah’ position is key to final Idlib battles.If lost #SAA will have to withdraw from S of JisSugr –Not a Spy

    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.749821&lon=36.386719&z=14&m=b&v=1

    • Nooooooooooo Syria has now become a lapdog of US imperialism !!! The Russians are being driven into a corner fighting for their very existence ! CIA must be paying off these rebels, and the rebels are betraying Syria by asking for protection. Halliburton coming in to steal Syrian oil ! Multinationals are going to set up factories to give badly needed jobs to Syrian so they can be exploited to make the 1% richer!

      So would the anti-NFZ left faction say here.

      IDLIB FRONT — is he saying that the battle front is the Hamakah military base and not Frikka?

      Good article.

  7. HILARIOUS PRO-REGIME PROPAGANDA TURNS YESTERDAYDEFEATS INTO VICTORIES

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/06/uk-mideast-crisis-idlib-idUKKBN0OM0N720150606

    A very amusing photo that accompanied a Press TV story on Idlib contradicted its own headline.

    “Syria army inflicts losses on militants in Hasakah”

    Note the photo, supposedly of advancing Syrian forces. What aren’t these guys carrying?

    http://presstv.ir/Detail/2015/06/07/414734/Syria-Hasakah-Damascus-Aleppo

    HOW MAINSTREAM WESTERN MEDIA COLLUDES WITH ASSAD

    As Dark Matter notes, while most of the damage to Assad’s heavy equipment was inflicted by the FSA, yet much of our mainstream media (lazily relying on SOAR) was full of news reporting “Jan’ triumphs or Al Queda-linked rebel triumphs. And note how the rebels are often described as “militants.” Why not call them “terrorists”–the standard propaganda line from Assad’s terrorist/genocide regime?

    How much is the Assad regime paying these guys to carry collude in its line?

  8. Could it be that the US is bombing ISIS at Hasakah, and that is the reason they have been pushed back by the SAA? Only the SAA would know the answer to that and of course they would not disclose that, and if they do, they will take credit for it. Centcom may not want to disclose either.

    • The focus of last US airstrikes was clearly Kobani. Airstrikes at Hasakah struck one large and one small ISIL tactical units, destroying four ISIL fighting positions and a vehicle. Statements of Internet activists and official US announcements about US airstrikes differ a little. But so far it`s not possible to say If SAA benefits by the US air strikes.

    • But where are these airstrikes in hasakah canton? Are they in the west at Tal Abid, or on the east at Hasakah city? It is only in the latter area that ISIS is pushing forward gaining ground.

      • my understanding: Kobane canton is bordered by Euphrat (west) and nearly Tel Abyad in the East. At the moment there is important fighting at Tel Abyad = FSA & PYD against IS = cutting IS away from the turkish border. 5 US airstrikes went to this region (Kobane).

        The other fighting area is near the town Hasakah – the biggest town in the Kurd Cizire Canton. The US airstrikes surely happened at the Hasakah surrounding airea – because otherwise US would say: Sinjar area – or Raqqa.

        The Kurdish frontline of south Kobane has already reached the province Raqqa. Thats why it`s unclear if the Raqqa airstrikes had happened near the area of the Euphrat or at IS supply lines and fighting positions between Tal Abyad and Raqqa.

  9. So far so good.

    The leftist Kurdish party HDP in Turkey has won 11.3% of the vote. They need to win over 10% in order to stop Erdogan from turning Turkey from a democracy into a one man dictatorship.

  10. lWith 58% of the vote counted, the HDP party in Turkey has 11.44% of the vote. They need at least 10% of the vote to stop Muslim Brotherhood Erdogan from becoming a one-man Islamic dictator.

  11. Turkish election: There are fraud reports since this morning only at Kurdish voting areas.

    The background: If the AKP can surpress the votes of HDP under 10% t these voices fall away and the AKP would again get the absolute majority.

    That’s why Erdogan tried everything to fail the HDP under the 10% hurdle

  12. It is getting better. With 74% of the ballot boxes counted, the vote is 11.93% for HDP. It is actually improving.

  13. OK, it appears democracy is safe in Turkey, despite all the efforts of the Islamists and Erdogan, and using all the state monies to buy the elections, to the contrary.

    With 84% of the ballot boxes counted, the HDP party received 12.15% of the vote.

    This means that Erdogan only receives 46% of the seats (his worse showing ever). He needs 50% to rule, 60% to demand a constitutional referendum, and 66.6% to outright change the constitution. He fails in all three.

    He now has to form government by coalition with one of the other 3 parties (CHP, MHP, HPD). Most likely that will be the MHP. He can still collude with MHP, bribe them, and get his constitutional referendum. MHP is a rightwing Baathist like party and may go to bed with Erdogan. MHP being Baathist like, they probably don’t like democracy any more than Erdogan does.

    I don’t know what MHP’s view of Assad is. That would be an interesting question.

    If HDP receives less than 10% of the total national vote, then according to the constitution, it will not get a single seat, as it will not pass the threshold. This means that Erdogan will receive 54% of the seats and can rule without coalition, but still cannot demand referendum outright.

    • Do you have sources? Because Kurds are saying: AKP is around 41% at the moment. Something about 40 – up to 39% was predicted for AKP. If HDP fails to take the 10% hurdle (we will not hope) AKP will has something like 46% up to 48% immidiatley.
      .

      • In terms of votes, AKP receive 40.5% of the vote. In terms of seats, they get 46.4%.
        HDP got 12.7% of the vote and 14.5% of the seats.

        A lot of smaller parties got less than 10% of the vote each so they get no seats. That is why for the winners, the seats is a higher percentage than the votes.

        The proportion of seats is not the same as the proportion of votes, because of the threshold, and because of rounding.

    • Dictatorship or clipped wings of Erdogan will both not limit the help of Türkey to Syrian rebels. Its all about the canton Afrin, Kobane and Ciezire.

    • I am no expert in Turkish politics but Erdogan can still team up with the far-right party MHP by making them an offer they cant refuse.

      • Devlet Bahçeli (MHP) sharply criticized Erdoğan and his plans to establish a presidential system : “He has committed tens of Constitution breaks, he abused and neglected his office many times. Erdogan has embarked on a path of no return. At the end of this path, he is either an elected tyrant who has created a state of fear […] or it is – when the law come into force -. In front of the State Court and charged with high treason. ”

        Brooker, this turkish elections is a fight about democrazy and about possible participation of other parties.
        Surely there will not be a coalition – even not with right wing MHP.

        • Bahceli appears to be a decent and educated person. He was a professor of economics and has a doctorate and even condemned the pre-election attack by some thugs, who nominally appeared to be of his party, against HDP. He thinks it was Erdogan who organized those attacks.

          I will not be surprised if he enters the coalition with Erdogan. But I don’t think he will go for the Presidential system because he knows that will be the end of his party.

          Gunny – MHP will be in any of the two possible coalitions. So they are the king maker. The question is that of the character of Bahjeli. Given that he is from the coast, he should be a bit more moderate.

    • I can see some Bastards here, who have no respect for a Democratic Process of expressing People’s view is talking about Turkish Election and its implication in Syrian uprising, WOW!! Neither in Syria or in Mullastan Iran you have a thing called ”Voting!”

      • Narcissus.

        for the 115x time, i am not for iran, here we vote almost on a yearly basis.

        If you cannot grasp the foreign policy implication of a national elections i cannot help you.

        Mr. Scott i am really tired of these childish attacks by people (Narcissus) that are clearly just trolling here.

        • @ Ali, the persian princess:
          If somebody is speaking on behalf of the massmurderer Assad and on behalf of crazy Khamenei it`s a strange and unreal person.
          BTW – everybody can claim in internet to be everything.
          Your comments are crucial and they are disenchanting you.

        • Ya Ali…

          If you are so tired of us, then why the hell you come here to practice your ‘freedom of expression’ while your Darling Assad and your playmate Khameni are the ones who hate such freedom. Your life is full of contradictions:

          1. You are okay with IRAQI-IRANI-AFGANI-LEBANI Intervention in SYRIA (physical) and hates others to help Rebels
          2. You are so keen to see and appreciate democracy in the country you live (?)-But do not want such a thing in Syria
          3. You are very Secular-But Do not see any problem having all Girls in Iran Clad in Black Burkha
          4. You are so sensitive that Rebels are killing Shabiha Thugs-but so much blind about the barrel bombs
          5. You are so much educated (at least I see you mention MIT)-But believe that a barrel dropped from Helicopter pinpoint rebels in populated areas.
          6. You are highly devoted to reasoning-but yet can’t answer why Assad never sent an envoy to Refugee camps who are the victims of ”Terrorists”
          7. You are so obsessed with ”Theory of Terrorism” in Syrian Revo-But cannot answer why the hell a lot of Assad’s generals and high officials from his Army defected. So, Assad appointed Terrorists in his ranks?
          8. You are such an avid reader and read between the lines-But you can not see that most of us here Hate IS as much as we hate Assad.

          If you can categorically answer these then I will know you have guts and logic to confront us.

          • dear sharia voter, you have presidential, local and parlamentary elections, sometimes the government falls (in our country without suicide bombers and beheading animals screaming allah akbar).

            so do the math, oh wait that is haram

            • I teach chemical Engineering. I know maths. And Most of the Arab Mathematicians were Sunnis. It is not Haram. To me Haram is “being too much proud, considering all other stupid and illiterate”.

        • Wherever you’re from, you’ve repeatedly expressed support for a wide range of dictatorships and are clearly hostile towards democracy.

          • while you support religious extremists that see democracy as something from Mars dear Ian

            secular dictator is a lot closer to democracy than religious extremists dictatorship.

            inb4 but at the start 5 people were protesting for democracy!!

    • @Ali — this is not clear at all. The MHP party is probably anti-Assad because it is very nationalistic and probably doesnt like the Alawites who sell themselves to the Russians and Iranians. Erdogan can form government with MHP. But then the other 3 parties can form government and get rid of Erdogan.

      In any case, democracy is good for all including the rebels.

      • democracy in Turkey (erdogan not in total control) means MIT cannot arm and cooridnate rebel offensives in northern syria.

        i know you follow the mantra, that rebels get weapons from “evil regime stockpiles” not from Turkey, where they have medical care, training camps, free passage of the border.

        • @Ali the persian princes.
          The elections are about if Erdogan can gain total power – or not. Because parts of the state already are more like the model of a managed democracy. Security service and the army like other parts of the state organisation are in the hands of erdogan right now.
          No problem to send weapons and support furthermore.

          • the army and the police, are the only ones stopping erdogan, (ok and journalists in jail exposing turkeys/erdogans support for radical islamists in Syria) the army is the most anti islamist force in turkey.

            again you are BS about things you know nothing about

            • Ali after all, you are the most educated and learner person in this chat group. Your boasting of knowing everything and undermining others just say one thing: An idiot thinks all others same as him!

              • pretty sure i am the smartest person here, at least in the enlighten culture of europe.

                in your beheading desert culture i must be an idiot, i agree

              • Ali you live in Enlightened Europe? May be. But you are a man from dark age where brutality is the means of controlling others. Otherwise you would not be supporting Assad.

  14. State of joy and big celebrations down the streets of Kobane, celebrating HDP victory. Kobani is really crazy at the moment.

    The same at Diyarbakir at turkey:

    It means: HDP has more than 10% and Erdogan has lost kid majority …………………..

  15. The video of the helicopter dropping the barrel bomb is horrifying beyond belief.

    People are actually watching this helicopter, and deploying the ambulances, loaders and excavators in anticipation of the gruesome task in the next few minutes to retrieve the bodies of children and innocents who were unlucky to be right under the helicopter when it releases its bomb.

    The world including Obama sees this. It is a simple matter to bring down these helicopters. Even a drone or a $5,000 manpad can do the job. But see-no-evil Obama probably closes his eyes when confronted with such videos and denies that Assad uses barrel bombs. As said many times before, there is no creature more immoral and pathetic than a leftist in power.

    And then the Assadists complain why do the rebels occasionally mortar their neighborhoods in Damascus. Even 20 mortars cannot do the same damage as one of these barrel bombs can do.

    • but if they dropped a guided missile then it would be ok?

      you are acting like a barrel bomb is some horrific weapon, its a bomb deployed from a helicopter

      • Guided missile targets an enemy position. While barrel bomb targets civilians. Which part of this you don’t understand?

        • You just imagine when an airforce do not have proper missiles they drop barrels. This crude weapon of mass murder manifests Assad’s army’s low tech nature. Soon they will be dropping excrements from air, thats the only thing will be left with SAA who are on the run….

        • Someone too stupid & too slow obviously cannot understand that a barrel bomb packed with nails will likely ONLY kill Civilians (women, children, old/infirm) while not even hitting the soldiers who are likely in other areas or even tunneling under positions.

          Barrel bombs are NO different than Israel shooting missiles into heavily packed areas of Gaza claiming that they kill only terrorists when the reality is otherwise.

          • strange that civilians die in US attacks with guided weapons.

            very strange.

            a barrel bomb is an unguided bomb, something MOST airforces use.

            i love this notion that guided missiles are ok and not a problem, because they “know” who is the bad guy.

    • Obama would have loved the show. He has absolutely no excuse for permitting it other than personal enjoyment.

    • That also means they can’t unilaterally push through Constitutional amendments.

      Also, it looks almost certain the HDP made it into Parliament.

  16. 25.000 ASSAD TROOPS MAY BE TRAPPED IN ALEPPO

    I wonder how that news will play on the coast. The claim comes from Yalla Souriya who mentions a complete cutoff from Latkia. However, from maps I’ve seen the regime still has a narrow and vulnerable supply corrider running from Al Saira southwest toward Salimiyeh.and the fact that is rebels can surely cut it near Khanassir and ISIS can do so further south.

    I’,\m not quite as skeptical about the manpower figure, given the large area the regime must defend These may not all be first rate troops but any fantasy enclave Assad intends near the coat won’t have much more manpower than it currently has unless Assad can pull these guys out of Aleppo and ditto for their comrades in Deir Ezzor and the Idlib area.

    Rebels can concentrate their numbers and heavy weapons while the regime, with so much to defend can’t do likewise. The rebels also have superior veteran fighters and appear to have lots of supply help via Turkey. If Isis is driven out of its eastern positions, and the regime must fight the rebels with no distractions from ISIS, it is in serious trouble.

    https://yallasouriya.wordpress.com/2015/06/07/twenty-five-thousand-syrian-government-troops-now-essentially-trapped-inside-aleppo-says-fsa-source/

    REGIME FORCES AND IRANIANS GET BEAT UP IN LATAKIA

    FSA killed 30 #Assad soldiers including 7 militants of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Latakia battles.–Source: Ikhwan Syria English

  17. AK leaders are saying they’ll form minority government and seem to expect new elections fairly soon.

    On the one hand, that may make Erdogan reluctant to do anything too adventurous in Syria such as a NFZ or a humanitarian intervention on the ground. But if AK needs the HDP’s support they may have ot adopt a more pro-Kurdish policy.

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