PHOTO: Southern Front fighters inside the Brigade 52 army base in southern Syria after its capture last week
The Washington Post headlines this morning that a US program to train and equip some of Syria’s rebels faces a funding cut by Congress.
The newspaper reports that the House Intelligence Committee voted unanimously to cut up to 20% of classified funds flowing into a CIA program that is approaching $1 billion a year. The Obama Administration also has put forth $500 million in open support, approved by Congress last autumn.
The Post does not say how it obtained the $1 billion figure, but claims that it is 1/15th of the CIA’s overall budget.
What the newspaper does not state, or possibly even consider, is that the US program has long been overtaken by other efforts supporting the rebels and bolstering their victories throughout Syria this year.
The Administration’s open train-and-equip program has been almost a non-starter. Training of rebels was supposed to begin in March in Turkey and Qatar; however, there is still no evidence that it is underway, apart from a brief claim last month of 40 US trainers going out to Turkey.
More significant is the CIA’s effort, largely based in Jordan. Citing “US officials”, the Post says American forces have trained and equipped almost 10,000 rebels since 2013, as well as providing intelligence and logistics to assist them inside Syria.
However, the CIA initiative — which has often been limited by hesitancy from Washington, according to sources — has been eclipsed by the support to rebels from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar, particularly since late 2014.
Because of its suspicion of rebel factions in northern Syria, the US has provided little assistance to that front. However, the Sham Front coalition and then the Jaish al-Fatah operations room have been bolstered by Turkey and the Gulf States with the supply of heavy weapons. That aid has backed a rapid rebel advance that has taken almost all of Idlib Province; threatened moves into Hama Province and on Aleppo city; and checked the current Islamic State offensive in northern Aleppo Province.
The US assistance has been notable in the south, where Washington sees possibilities in the “moderate” Southern Front coalition. However, any shortfall from a funding cut can probably be covered by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
That is, providing that Washington does not lodge political objections that hinder that assistance. The Obama Administration may have been unsettled by the pace of rebel victories in Daraa Province, along the Jordanian border. Taking towns such as the historic Busra al-Sham and the Naseeb border crossing — and seizing the Brigade 52 army base within eight hours last week — the rebels are now on the borders of Suweida Province and its large Druze population. A rebel assault on al-Thala airbase, one of the largest for Assad froces, has been paused — possibly because of the political uncertainty over the advance.
However, the pause at al-Thala does little to check the image of an Assad regime that could be falling, and possibly much faster than any analyst anticipated. In Washington, that stokes the perpetual fear of “extremists” overwhelming “moderates” in a post-Assad Syria.
An unnamed “US intelligence official” may assure, “Slowly but surely, US government support to the moderate opposition forces has paid off.” However, Representative Adam Schiff, a leading member of the House Intelligence Committee, sounds the warning:
Unfortunately, I think that ISIS, al-Nusra and some of the other radical Islamic factions are the best positioned to capitalize on the chaos that might accompany a rapid decline of the regime.
