PHOTO: King Abdullah II of Jordan

Benjamin Decker writes for Vice magazine:


For decades, Jordan has maintained a mutually beneficial relationship with the West. While the country lacks the natural resources that have made some of its neighbors very rich, its stability, comparatively moderate politics, and geographic positioning have made Jordan a crucial strategic partner for America and others in the Middle East.

This cozy relationship with Western nations amid widespread regional turmoil has brought the Hashemite Kingdom toe-to-toe with a variety of militant groups who have established a troubling presence along the country’s borders. The Syrian Civil War recently witnessed al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra lead an offensive in which it captured the only functional border crossing between Syria and Jordan. And the meteoric rise of the Islamic State in Iraq has entrenched the group near Iraq’s 112-mile border with Jordan.

But the biggest threat posed by the militants isn’t war. It’s economics.

Some effects of militancy on Jordan’s economy are hard to quantify: Earlier this year, IS issued a communiqué threatening to launch attacks in Jordan, and three weeks later, the US Embassy warned foreigners to stay away from malls in Amman. Others are more direct: Thousands of trucks carrying goods into and out of Jordan used to cross the borders with Iraq and Syria every day. Today, perhaps 50 trucks make the journey, thanks to the presence of IS, Jabhat al-Nusra, and a myriad of more moderate Syrian rebel militant groups that have effectively blocked many regional trade routes.

The result is a commercial trucking industry that has lost between $20 million and $30 million per day since the beginning of April. This, coupled with a shortage of critically needed natural resources due in part to IS attacks on transnational pipelines, has forced Jordan to increase its reliance on imports from countries like Saudi Arabia, China, and the US; the country’s public debt now stands at more than $35 billion. With Jordanian economic output projections as grim as they are, its unclear when King Abdullah will be able to pay off the loans.

In an effort to revive Jordan’s struggling export industry, Abdullah has reached out to his neighbors and allies to bolster Jordan’s borders and take the fight to the Islamists. Just as the Jordanian and Iraqi governments were coordinating the deployment of Iraqi Sunni tribesmen to the border region between the two countries, IS launched a triple car bombing attack April 25 on the Tureibil border crossing, less than 20 miles from the town of Rutbah, an IS stronghold in the Anbar Province. While Jordanian officials have been quick to play down the IS presence in Rutbah, the group has reportedly imposed a $400 to $1,000 tax on any commercial vehicles that attempt to pass through.

Jordan’s troubles with Islamist militants began long before the horrific execution of Jordanian fighter pilot Moaz al-Kasasbeh early this year; IS founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian, is alleged to have planned the 2005 Amman hotel bombings. And at least 2,000 similarly minded Jordanian nationals have left the country and joined IS and Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria and Iraq.

And the country’s economy has been troubled for years. Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s each downgraded the country’s financial outlook over the past half decade. Meanwhile, the government recently raised electricity tariffs and upped tax rates for many businesses; the Jordan Chamber of Commerce expects food prices could rise by as much as 20% this year.

Read full article….