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Analysis: Rouhani & Supreme Leader Add to Confusion over Nuclear Talks and Sanctions Relief


In his first public comments since last week’s nuclear framework between Iran and the 5+1 Powers, the Supreme Leader has expressed caution about a final deal.

In an address on Thursday, Ayatollah Khamenei said of a comprehensive agreement, which is to be reached by a June 30 deadline:

What has been done so far neither guarantees [the clinching of] an agreement itself and its contents, nor ensures that the negotiations would proceed to the end.

Everything lies in the details. The other side which is known for backpedaling on its commitments may want to corner our country when it comes to the specifics.

The Supreme Leader’s address on Nuclear Technology Day accompanied a televised statement by President Rouhani that appeared to toughen Iran’s stance on removal of sanctions, insisting on their immediate termination on the day of a comprehensive agreement.

See Iran Analysis: Tehran Toughens Stance as Rouhani Declares “All Sanctions Must Be Lifted on Day of Nuclear Agreement”

Khamenei echoed:

He tied the sanctions issue to his long-standing distrust of the Americans, saying that “he has never been optimistic about negotiations with the US” although he “has supported and will support the [Iranian] negotiators” in the current talks.

The Supreme Leader took aim at the US fact sheet, released after last Thursday’s framework was announced, which said sanctions would be removed upon International Atomic Energy Agency verification of Iranian compliance with the terms of a comprehensive agreement.

The Supreme Leader also declared, “No unconventional inspection that would place Iran under special monitoring is acceptable. Foreign monitoring on Iran’s security is not allowed.”

Setting out these challenges, Khamenei concluded, “It is pointless congratulating me and others at this point.”


Insurgents Kills 2 More Military Officers in Southeast Iran

Insurgents have killed two more members of the Iranian security forces in Sistan-Baluchestan Province near the Pakistan border.

The two signal officers, working for the Revolutionary Guards, were killed as they returned from work in the mountainous areas of Mehrestan, a city in the far south of the province.

On Monday, eight border guards were killed by insurgents in the province. Both the Sunni factions Jaish ul-Adl and Ansar al-Furqan are suspected of responsibility.

Sunni insurgents have attacked Iranian forces for years, but this week’s attacks are the biggest spike in violence since five border guards were kidnapped and taken into Pakistan in March. One was killed before the others were released after weeks of negotiations.

Supreme Leader Raises Pressure Over Yemen Crisis, Calls Saudi Arabia “Inexperienced”

In his speech on Thursday, the Supreme Leader continued Iran’s political escalation of the Yemen crisis, challenging Saudi intervention as that of “inexperienced youngsters”.

See also Iran Feature: Tehran Steps Up Political Offensive Over Yemen Crisis

Ayatollah Khamenei said, “The Saudis will definitely be struck back in this issue and their nose will be rubbed against the ground. This action (of the Saudis) is not acceptable in the region and I warn that they will certainly lose interests.”

Two weeks ago, a Saudi-led coalition began bombing in the Arabian Peninsula country of Yemen to check the advance of the Houthi movement, which took power in the capital Sanaa in February.

The Iranians have given economic, political, and military support the Houthis, a Zaidi Shia group.

The Supreme Leader said that the Saudis used to show more self-restraint and sobriety in their foreign policy, but alleged that affairs are now controlled by a number of inexperienced young people who “want to show savagery”.

Khamenei also teased the Saudis over the nuclear issue: