PHOTO: Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday
LATEST: Head of Armed Forces Blasts Saudi Arabia over Oil Prices, “Support of Islamic State”
WEDNESDAY FEATURE
Analysis: Rafsanjani Criticizes the Supreme Leader as Internal Battle Escalates
Syria’s Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi has begun several days of discussions in Iran, seeking Tehran’s continued support for the Syrian economy in the 45-month conflict.
Al-Halqi had a photo opportunity with President Rouhani, while the substantive discussions took place with 1st Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri and the Secretary of the National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani
In the official statements, Rouhani “stressed that the global conspiracies against Iran will not dissuade it from continuing its support for Syria’s government and people”.
Away from the cameras, however, the important question is whether Syria will get billions more in assistance from Tehran as it faces economic crisis and shortages of food and fuel.
Iranian State media said al-Halqi thanked the Iranians for their $3.6 billion line of credit, arranged in July 2013, saying that it had provided food and oil derivatives through 2015 as well as spare parts for power plants, hospitals, and factories.
The articles did not comment on al-Halqi’s request for Iran to renew the line of credit when it is exhausted, merely posting his remark to Rouhani, “The Syrian government and people appreciate the Iranian government and people for their support during the four-year cruel war against Syria.”
Iran’s ability to contribute more billions may be hindered by its own economic difficulties. With the failure to reach a comprehensive nuclear agreement, Tehran faces continuing sanctions and their effect on oil exports — down more than 40% since 2012 — and revenues. The halving of the global oil price, the baseline for the Government budget presented last week, has compounded the immediate problems with deficits, inflation, and falling production.
Yet another complication has arisen this week with the currency crisis in Russia, the other main backer of the Assad regime. The ruble has fallen more than 20% this week, despite Moscow’s attempt to bolster it with a sharp rise in interest rates.
Head of Armed Forces Blasts Saudi Arabia over Oil Prices, “Support of Islamic State”
The head of Iran’s armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi, has launched the regime’s latest attack on Saudi Arabia over the halving of global oil prices since June.
Following the line put out by President Rouhani and the Secretary of the National Security Council, denouncing the Saudis as part of a “foreign plot” against Iran and the Islamic world through the falling price, now below $60/barrel.
Firouzabadi linked the oil issue to the regime’s claim of Saudi backing of the Islamic State in areas like Iraq and Syria. However, in doing so, he effectively admitted the difficulties for the Iranian economy:
By increasing oil production, Saudi Arabia assured the US and the West, which represent the world’s big capital holders, that they will not be restricted for supplying fuel and on the other hand by decreasing the oil prices, it laid financial pressure on the regional countries which are fighting the ISIL terrorists.
Head of Revolutionary Guards Plays Down Rift with Rouhani
The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, has played down tensions with President Rouhani, saying that the claimed divide is part of “enemy psychological operations”.
Jafari insisted that relations between Rouhani and the IRGC are “very good” and that the President completely trusts the elite military organization.
The President and the IRGC have clashed periodically in recent months over nuclear negotiations and economic affairs. Last week, Rouhani implicitly criticized the Guards’ expanding interests in the Iranian economy, indicating that they were part of the problems of corruption and monopolies.
See Iran Daily, Dec 11: Is Rouhani Panicking Over the Economy?
However, Jafari denied that the President was speaking about the IRGC:
The honorable President was asked in this regard, and he said, “I did not mean the Guards.” His statement was a general recommendation and analysis…The President has total confidence in the Guards, and his relationship with the Guards is very good and based in mutual trust.
Rafsanjani Continues Challenge to Hardliners Over “Corruption”
Continuing his campaign against hardliners, former President Rafsanjani has pressed the Rouhani Government’s condemnation of corruption under the Ahmadinejad Administration.
Rafsanjani said, “In the previous Government, there was a ‘sea of corruption’. This government has to only state only a few cases due to the internal and foreign situations.”
The former President chided hardliners: “Those who supported the previous corruption are now trying to deceive people with their slogans and make people disappointed in the Government.”
See Iran Analysis: Rafsanjani Criticizes the Supreme Leader as Internal Battle Escalates
First Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri also criticized the rule of President Ahmadinejad, saying that the “main part of the current problems of Iran are due to the law-breaking of Ahmadinejad’s Government”. He cited the transfer of $22 million out of Iran, without receipt of any imports, in the last months of the Government: “No one is answering about it.”
Senior Rouhani Advisor: No Economic Crisis Over Falling Oil Prices
Senior Presidential advisor Mohammad-Baqer Nobakht has given a tangled assurance that all-is-well with the Iranian economy, despite impact of a halving of the global oil price on Tehran’s revenues:
The oil market is a completely political and fluctuating market and the pressure exerted on us falls on those Arab states which increase production and give special discounts to lower the oil prices too, and they will also sustain losses as well.
They think that they can pressure Iran by continuing such conditions, but just the same way that we are now acting exactly on the basis of the budget planning despite the decreased prices in the current year, we will move on the same course in future as well.
In its 2015/2016 budget presented this week, the Government had to reduce its revenue base from $100/barrel of oil to $72/barrel.
The oil price, which was close to $120/barrel in June, is now below $60/barrel.
Nobakht said any fall would be covered by an increase in non-oil income: “Currently, oil revenues account for only 1/3 of the country’s budget. I can guarantee that Iran has enough natural resources that will enable the government to cover expenditures conveniently, independent of oil revenues.”
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif did not sound so assured as he welcomed Iraqi Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jabouri on Tuesday, “It is regrettable that regional [oil-producing] countries are not cooperating on the falling oil prices and its negative implications.”
