On Thursday night, I was approached by Tasnim News Agency, a conservative Iranian site, with questions about the Vienna nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, Germany, China, Russia, and France). I replied on Friday morning:

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How do you assume the probable chance/opportunity for reaching a comprehensive agreement in this ongoing nuclear talks? What is your prediction or assessment about current nuclear talks at Vienna?

At this point, I am pessimistic about the conclusion of an agreement by the November 24 deadline.

The main reason is the large gap between Iran and the 5+1 Powers on the number and level of centrifuges for uranium enrichment. Iran’s wants an expansion of output — Separative Work Units — while the US and its allies want a reduction.

Iran’s negotiating position is less than the Supreme Leader’s goal of 190,000 SWUs, a 20-fold increase on current capacity. However, it still wants to operate advanced models among the 7,000 or so centrifuges which may be the working number for an agreement. The US appears to be firmly against any operation of centrifuges other than the current, 40-year-old IR-1 models.

Iran will also want a significant reduction in US-led sanctions as part of an agreement, but this is dependent on a resolution over the centrifuges.

In the case of another extension [of the talks beyond November 24], which sort of accords might be reached in this stage?

An extension is likely to entail: 1) continuation of arrangements from the November 2013 Joint Plan on Iran’s enrichment activities; 2) Continued Iranian assurances over the plans for the heavy-water reactor at Arak; 3) Iran’s continuing talks with the IAEA on inspections; 4) Possible movement of some Iranian low-enriched uranium to Russia, in return for limited sanctions relief.

To what extent the US Government could/might grant concessions to Iran for its nuclear program? Indeed, is there any objective measures or demands for US officials which must be met?

I do not either side wants to be seen as making “concessions”. The challenge is that each will want to show it has “won” in an agreement.

On surging pressures on Iran, does the US have any further credible tools which could effectively hurt Tehran much more?

The difficulty for the Iranian leadership is that the US and its allies do not have to do “more” with sanctions. Iran is already in an economic crisis — over inflation, unemployment, and productivity — which is likely to worsen, given the fall in the global oil price. One of the reasons that the Supreme Leader has backed the talks, despite his distrust of the US, is because of the difficulties that the Islamic Republic faces if there is no agreement.

Due to the Republican majority in both houses of the US Congress [from January 2015], what sort of pressures or influences might be imposed by the US lawmakers on nuclear negotiations between Iran and P5+1?

I don’t think that pressure from the US Congress will be significant if the two sides can reach an agreement in November. However, if the talks are extended, they face headline opposition from the new Congress which begins in January and the prospect of measures restricting the Obama Administration’s freedom of negotiation.

How do you assume the US Congress will react to possible final agreement, or to another extension?

Congress’ reaction to a final agreement will depend on its terms. An extension will be seen as deferring hard decisions until 2015 and will build pressure on the Administration against compromise with Iran.

How might the US Congress be effective for these negotiations and facilitate reaching a mutually-agreed deal?

The US Congress is largely irrelevant at this point. A resolution depends first and foremost on the Obama Administration and the Iranian leadership — especially the Supreme Leader — finding a resolution over the centrifuges which both sides can accept.

To what extent does President Obama have enough authority to suspend or lift sanctions which are imposed on Iran?

President Obama has the authority to lift sanctions which has been imposed by Executive Order, but must go to Congress to remove those imposed by law. However, it should also be remembered that some of the most damaging sanctions imposed on Iran are the European Union’s measures of July 2012 — these can be lifted as soon as an agreement is reached.

Regarding signing a deal, what sort of consequences for Iran and the US might be generated, whether positive or negative results?

A deal means not only an easing of the long-running tension over the nuclear issue but also the possibility of cooperation on other issues, such as the Syrian and Iraqi crises.

Failure to reach a deal means confrontation in the Middle East over key issues and serious economic difficulties for Iran.