The week in Iran was taken over by Tehran’s nuclear talks with the 5+1 Powers, as the two sides met for three days in Vienna to pursue a draft comprehensive agreement.

Both Iranian and American officials said the discussions were now “difficult”; however, they continued to uphold a “constructive atmosphere” and almost immediately announced the next round in Vienna from June 16-20.

Voices from each side challenged the process. In Tehran, hardliners chided the Rouhani Government for weakness in the face of a dishonest US and its European partners. Unnamed “Western diplomats” used outlets like Reuters to proclaim Iran’s continued attempts for a “breakout” military capability and to press for the Islamic Republic’s missiles to be included in the talks, a condition which Tehran has firmly rejected.

The signs from Iran, despite the hardline challenge, continued to be of an eagerness to reach a deal before an interim Joint Plan of Agreement expires on July 20. The Supreme Leader continued to endorse the discussions, Iran hosted another visit by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and Iranian media headlined the hopes of powers from Russia to France for success.

The enthusiasm was motivated in part by concern. Iran’s economic situation continues to verge on crisis, with oil exports failing make a further recovery from last year’s historic low. The Rouhani Government’s subsidy cuts have not brought a public show of resistance, but worries about inflation and stagnant production are prominent.

Away from the nuclear front, the issue of political prisoners was headlined by a photograph of detained opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi during his recent hospitalization for a heart condition.

Mousavi’s daughters said, after weeks of protests over his treatment, that he was receiving medical care during his 39-month strict house arrest; however, the story also indicated that there would be no relief for detainees. The Rouhani Government has fallen silent about the issue after sustained pressure from hardliners not to give way to “sedition”.

FORECAST

Despite the failure to advance on a draft for a comprehensive agreement, the quick support of both Iran and the 5+1 Powers for more talks indicated the process is not in jeopardy.

At the same time, the gap on details such as Iran’s number and level of centrifuges, the status of the under-construction Arak heavy-water nuclear reactor, and “potential military dimensions” indicate that a deal may not be possible before the expiry of an interim Joint Plan of Agreement on July 20. Look for the two sides to agree an extension of the Joint Plan to prevent a breakdown of discussions.

That extension will deal with the immediate difficulty for talks, but it still presents Iran with a problem. The US and its partners can afford to wait for a comprehensive agreement. Tehran may not have the luxury of time, given the precarious position of the economy.

FEATURED ANALYSES

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