European Union’s Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif at Conclusion of Vienna Nuclear Talks

Iran and the 5+1 Powers took another step towards a comprehensive nuclear deal, with opening talks in Vienna declared “useful and constructive” and a date set for further discussions.

The negotiations, following November’s interim agreement, were on a framework for long-term resolution of issues such as Tehran’s enrichment of uranium, the status and inspections of its nuclear facilities, and a lifting of US-led sanctions.

Experts from the two sides will meet in Vienna next week, with high-level talks resuming on March 17.

The pragmatic tone and cautious declaration of progress overtook tough rhetoric in the weeks before the meeting, with Iran responding sharply to US Secretary of State John Kerry’s pronouncement that “military options were still on the table” if Iran did not adhere to the interim deal. The military, including the Revolutionary Guards, have muted statements in recent days after a barrage of statements that Iran would punish any American attack and was moving its warships off the US coast.

Inside Iran, there was little movement on the economic front or on political and social “openness”, as the Rouhani Government maintained its cautious approach to ensure support for its nuclear negotiations.

However, in a notable case of continued restrictions, the newspaper Aseman — opened only a week earlier — was shut down following publication of an article discussing the Islamic law on retribution.

And Iranian officials made clear that detained opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, now in their fourth year under strict house arrest, would not be released unless they repented for their role in “sedition” after the disputed 2009 Presidential election.

FORECAST

The Rouhani Government scored a significant victory with the Vienna talks. While the discussions were only on the framework for future negotiations, the Government needed statements of progress to push back hard-liners — and they got them.

With the Iranian economy in a state of slow recovery and no dramatic news on the political front, President Rouhani will hope to keep attention on a step-by-step advance in the talks while maintaining the line that he is protecting the Islamic Republic’s interests. The Supreme Leader at this point is supportive, while repeating his declarations about Iran pursuing a “resistance economy” to overcome the Western sanctions.

That line will come at the price, at least in the eyes of many reformists and activists, of a freeze on any measures for cultural and social openness. That includes the freeing of political prisoners such as Mousavi and Karroubi.

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