Syria Daily, Feb 1: Geneva II Ends, Regime Bombings Soar


LATEST: 4 Killed In Another Suicide Bomb in Northeast Lebanon


The Geneva II conference adjourned on Friday with no significant advance, overtaken by the Assad regime’s escalating campaign of bombing in southern Syria.

Almost 40 bombs fell on the Damascus suburb of Darayya yesterday, bringing the today to more than 70 since Wednesday. Airstrikes were also carried out on other areas in the south such as Zabadani and East Ghouta near Damascus, as well as in the northwest with attacks in Idlib Province.

The number of casualties in Darayya and beyond is unknown, but the Local Coordiation Committees said 106 people died across the country, including 19 children and 15 women. Of the deaths, 61 were in Aleppo Province and 19 in Damascus and its suburbs.

Well-placed sources describe the bombings as a sign of weakness, with Syrian forces losing territory in the south and fearing that insurgent control of Darayya would cut off the regime between south Damascus and Dar’aa Province.

Video backed up the claims, with insurgents celebrating victories in Swisah and other locations near Quneitra:

Insurgents attacking regime forces in the area:

In Geneva, United Nations envoy Lakhdar Brahimi said there had been little progress in the 10 days of talks, but declared a “modest beginning”:

Both sides have become used to sitting in the same room. They have presented positions, and listened to each other….Progress is very slow indeed, but the sides have engaged in an acceptable manner.

The envoy said the opposition delegation would be back on February 10. However, President Assad’s representatives, led by Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem, said they would have to consult with Damascus.

The opposition’s attempt to discuss a political transition without Assad was blocked by the regime delegation’s insistence on a focus on “terrorism”. Confidence-building measures such as aid to besieged areas of Homs, first announced last Saturday, have stalled as Damascus held up approval.

Al-Moallem blamed the lack of advance on the “non-seriousness” of the opposition delegations and “its threat of blowing up the meetings many times”. Without referring to the demand that President Assad step down for a political transition, he chided “its stubbornness on one issue”.

Al-Moallem also claimed “flagrant intervention” by the US, including the Congressional authorization of non-lethal aid to insurgents.

The Assad delegation also told the opposition, “Syria was and is still ruled by men of State, not by amateurs or semi-men.”

4 Killed In Another Suicide Bomb in Northeast Lebanon

A suicide car bomb attack struck Hermel in northeast Lebanon on Saturday, killing at least four people and wounding 21.

The attack is the 2nd in just over two weeks in Hermel by Jabhat al-Nusra, an Islamist faction prominent in fighting in Syria. A bomb in January killed five people.

Today’s bomber struck a petrol station.

100s Evacuated from Besieged Yarmouk

Aid agencies evacuated hundreds of people from the besieged Damascus section of Yarmouk this weekend

Anwar Raja, a spokesman for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, said the group co-ordinated with the Syrian Arab Red Crescent on Friday and Saturday over the evacuation.

The remaining 18,000 residents, mainly Palestinians, have been cut off by the Syrian military since July. More than 80 have reportedly died from starvation.

Activist Media: Barrel Bombs Kill 13 in Aleppo

The Aleppo Media Center said at least 13 people were killed by barrel bombs in Aleppo on Saturday.

Those slain by the regime airstrikes included a family trapped in a car when a fuel tanker exploded from the bombing. Three buildings were damaged.

Foreign Minister: We Rejected US Approach for Direct Talks at Geneva II

Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem, the head of the Assad delegation at the Geneva II conference, said Saturday that they rejected a US request for direct talks.

“The Americans asked us to negotiate directly with them in Montreux,” al-Moallem told Syrian State media on the plane home from Switzerland. “But we refused to do so before Secretary of State John Kerry apologized for what he said at the conference.”

During the opening, Kerry said President Assad “will not be part” of a transitional government: “There is no way, not possible in the imagination, that the man who has led the brutal response to his own people could regain legitimacy to govern.”

(The State Department later denied the claim. Spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the US had offered contact with Syrian officials “on a staff level” through UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi.

“At no point did the United States offer to negotiate directly with the Syrian regime,” she said.)

Al-Moallem would not commit to a second round of talks for February 10, saying the delegation awaited guidance from Damascus.

He dismissed the “coalition of the so-called ‘opposition’”: “If they do not abandon their illusions, they will get a rude shock because we are a country of institutions and a constitution and we have a President of the republic.”

The Foreign Minister said it was “a stain” on the opposition that they refused to sign a declaration condemning “terrorism” in the country.

Fighting Renews Between FSA, Chechen-Led Jaish al-Muhajireen wal Ansar, Regime Nr Aleppo

Russian-language sources close to Chechen and North Caucasian fighters in Syria report that fighting between regime troops and the Free Syrian Army has renewed in Ma’aret Artik, between Kafr Hamra and Babis north of Aleppo city.

Map showing Ma’aret Artik (click for a larger and clearer view):

Screen Shot 2014-02-01 at 11.42.10
Ma’aret Artik is described as the “ribat” or frontline of Jaish al-Muhajireen wal Ansar (JMA). The reports say that “this is what JMA managed to repulse in recent days”, presumably a reference to the regime forces.

The situation around Ma’aret Artik is complex. There have been some unclear reports from Russian-language sources that JMA is cooperating with other insurgent forces — possibly the Islamic Front and another faction named Nuraddin az-Zinki — in the area against the regime.

JMA is led by Salahuddin Shishani, who took over the faction in November after its former leader, Umar Shishani, swore an oath of allegiance to ISIS leader al-Baghdadi and joined ISIS, provoking a split in the predominantly Chechen faction between those who swore to ISIS and those who remained loyal to the Caucasus Emirate.

See Interview With Salahuddin Shishani, Amir Of Jaish al-Muhajireen wal Ansar
Chechen Jihadi Sayfullakh Slams “Fitna” Between ISIS & Insurgents

Salahuddin has slammed fighting between ISIS and other insurgents, vowing to stay out of it, and saying he preferred to fight the regime. In this, he has taken a similar view to other Chechen insurgents, notably his former comrade-in-arms and Umar’s former second-in-command in JMA, Sayfullakh Shishani — who has sworn an oath to Jabhat al-Nusra — has also condemned the infighting and there are reports that he has also taken part in battles against the regime.

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  1. Friday Was for Super for Rebels Who Won Three Victories

    REBEL VICTORY #1: This is the second significant rebel victory in the last two weeks. The one in Daraya got little attention and this one got none. Where was it? How much did the rebels overrun? What did they capture? For the latter see the second video at the link below. If the regime takes Yabrud, regardless of losses and time required, the media will give it far more attention.

    Rebels found Hezbollah had been running an “infantry school in Quneitra Province. This video shows what they found:

    REBEL VICTORY #2: Rebels they may have downed two MIgs, one in the Hama/Homs area and one in Aleppo. Brown Moses reports the rebels now have SA-7s, SA-16’s, SA24s and FN-6 Manpads. More goodies may be coming thanks to the regime’s rotten behavior in Geneva II and far more reasonable rebels there. Should the West conclude that this conflict must be settled on the battlefield, the only party it makes sense to help are the moderate rebels.

    REBEL VICTORY #3: The capture of strategic Morek by the Islamic Front, FSA and local fighters. It lies on the highway leading from Hama to regime held Khan Sheikhoun in southern Idlib province. Many regime forces to the north risk getting cut off.

    In the Hama area rebels have also taken the Atchan checkpoint (link to graphic video below) and reached Qamhana, just north of Hama itself. They could break the sieges of both Hama and Homs soon if this continues.

    ALEPPO VICTORY COMING? Supposedly the rebels have broken into the notorious Aleppo prison via a tunnel. We’ll find out soon.

    DAMASCUS: The FSA reports two regime attacks failed in Damascus today with the usual consequence (high regime casualties). A regime attempt to break into the village of Balalia failed, as did an assault on the Khazan barrier.

    TURKEY: ISIS threatens retaliation after Turkey pounded its convoy.

    ARTICLE: Arab Prospects Beyond the Arab Spring

    • Serious question: Is that meant as satire?

      You are on this site for more then a year now and without exception EVERY SINGLE DAY in your view saw nothing but endless rebel advances, overwhelming victories, massive regime casualties (of course with hardly any rebel losses) and sweeping rebel campaigns. Every. single. day.

      In reality, the frontlines hardly ever move and when they do its mostly regime forces who retake some towns (Not that they got any real game changin successes either). Their last notable success was Ar-Raqqa and that was a year ago and since then it is in the hands of jihadis. Maybe you can name the failed Latakia offensive from early summer. Nothing else since then
      The various rebel coalitions had an absolutely horrible year and even now are hardpressed with the fight against ISIS, while kurds and regime forces are steadily consolidating their positions everywhere.

      I could swear, even if some day assad has retaken aleppo and the northern provinces, we would surely hear nothing from you but how awesome the latest “rebel victories” were and how they SURELY are winning the civil war.

      • yassam, the regime is dying from the roots up. It continues to be a war of attrition. Assad has run out of replacement manpower within Syrian and has become dependant upon foreign mercenaries financed by Iran and Iraq. Assad chose this war and the Alawi chose to support him and fight it on his terms. and so it has come to pass. The victory is the body count. It does not matter which village or street the rebels or the regime seizes. Every new headstone in Latakia is a victory for the rebels. Assad will run out of alawi long before the rebels run out of Sunni.

        • Every new headstone in Latakia is a victory for the rebels

          guess the 200 civilians or soo murdered in Latakia by AQ fall into this category.

          [edited by moderator]

          • “guess the 200 civilians or soo murdered in Latakia by AQ fall into this category.”

            unfortunately and regrettebly, yes.
            The Alawi will not become extinct except by their own hand. I do not believe that will come to pass. Before their genocide arrives they will decide that democracy under a sunni majority is better than death under Assad. Then the war will end.

            The real question for now is how many more graves in Latakia before the 10 percent Alawi yield to the 82% peasantry.

        • Richard: But that argument is used since the start of the war (and with the high defection rate then, it even held true two years ago) But the regime forces today are more active on more frontlines with more “success” (again: also nothing to get too excited about from a pro-regime POV) then at this point last year.

          The casualties seem to be pretty evenly split between both sides and the rebels have the problem of fighting the kurds and ISIS at the same time as well (and both seem to be reasonable successfull against rebels)
          And it is debatable how much of the SAA and especially the supporting militias like the NDF are actually alawites. Either way: Assad holds most of the population centers and has -as you noted- large support by foreign militias. It doesnt look like casualties will stop the regime anytime soon.


        The regime now resembles a man inflicted with incurable cancer but in the stage where he may appear normal until one examines the medical charts. In the end, collapse always comes quickly and is often accompanied by massive weight loss. In other words, your complaints would be totally justified IF…IF…IF…this were a conventional war and not a popular insurrection.

        However, popular insurections must start with almost nothing and grow stronger gradually while patiently and confidently eroding the enemy. Over time you seize the countryside leaving big cities to last but nibbling on their edges. You “islandize” his strongholds. You never take on his main forces until the final stages. Attacking in many places where not expected, you simply withdraw if he shows up with overwhelming force then hit where he ain’t. That strategy has been described as “the death of a thousand cuts” or “war of the flea?” Haven’t you noticed it? Are you not amazed by what the rebels achieve as they’ve had to take on Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and other proxies almost without held (until very recently). This insurrection has had to deal with serious obstacles unknown to others and is still succeeding in spite of all!

        In the first stage (ending in May), ill-equipped rebels depended almost exclusively on weapons taken from the regime while fighting an enemy whose rich air and land resources were further enhanded by massive tonnage from Iran and Russia. Yet Assad had virtually lost the war by May. In the second stage, rebels had to repeat much of their earlier achievements as they were forced to take on more than 20,000 imported Shia fighters and more than 60,000 Syria militias trained and armed by Iran and aided further by IRCG’s assumption of strategic command from Assad’s dummy generals.

        Remarkably the rebels have climbed back close to where they had been in early May of 2013. The regime has reportedly informed Moscow that it cannot continue to hold many important locations with the current level of proxy forces. The rebels strategy has been twofold: to wear down the latter as they wore down Assad’s forces in May and to punish sectarian intervention by bringing the war to the homelands of such invaders. They appear to be stepping up both as you’ve noticed.

        A third unique obstacle was Al Queda-linked ISIS which functioned as a regime fifth column. It gave the regime a propaganda bonus by framing the rebels as “terrorists” and thereby limiting outside assistance. It provided the regime with intelligence information about rebel intent and locations of HQs. It kidnapped, murdered or hand over rebel commanders and democratic activists sought by Assad. It even withdrew from key battlefields (Al Safira) at pre-arranged moments without firing a single bullet.

        Now that rebels are addressing that problem and benefitting from a great performance in Geneva, I think they’ll reap serious help others had previously withheld. Some is already arriving.

        CONCERNING THE THREE VICTORIES I DESCRIBED: They happened (except possibly for a second MIG as my use of the word “may” indicated). So which is it? Are you denying those victories occurred or are you demanding that I refrain from reporting them? What major victories has the Sectarian Alliance won since the pyrrhic one in June? What minor victories? The latter requires three things the regime lacks: abundant manpower, countrol of the countryside and overwhelming popular support. When Assad manages to seize something, notice how he invariably loses it again soon afterward.

      • Aleppo is the regime’s tar baby. It can’t afford to hand on but can’t let go. Every option is a bad one.

        Letting the rebels take Aleppo would be fatal. The present contested status is not sustainable and costs the regime too much elsewhere. If Aleppo were take, those costs would double or worse. The expanded perimeter to be defended in a highly Sunni countryside would require substantially ore resources.

        In sum Assad would have acquired the equivalent to Napoleon’s “Spanish Ulcer” as a resource drainer. In terms of distance and logistics, why not seize the North Pole and attempt to hang on while things to South closer to home?

  2. Jarba Really Impressed Russia Who May Now See Him As a Superior Alternative to Assad

    The Christian Science writes, “Seeing Mr. Jarba addressing an international audience convinced some doubtful Syrians that the opposition has leaders that might be capable of leading a country – even one as destroyed and divided as Syria, some Syrian analysts say. Jarba made a point of including Syria’s disparate populations – even some that don’t favor the opposition – in his vision for Syria… In a sign of Jarba’s rising star, Russia announced that the opposition leader would meet with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Tuesday. That announcement can’t be music to Assad’s ears. “

    To get out of the Syrian morass and halt further radicalization, Russia must find a viable alternative to Assad—a unifier not a divisive figure. Jorba appears to meet that requirement. I think many Alawites would be relieved to toss Assad to the wolvs if they saw an acceptabl alternative.

    Assad has become a complete liability to all parties, except the inner circle of war criminals around him. The moment Geneva ended, he stepped up bombing. He continues to dream that rigged elections will suffice to restore his popular legitimacy. He still favors Alawite dominance of the military and security services and retention of those who carried out so many crimes. Everyone knows it was Assad’s bright idea to encourage Al Queda and other anti-democracy Islamists by releasing their most skilled and extreme troublemakers from his prisons early in the war.

    When this war began, the top Russian goal was to prevent the rise of extremism lest it spread to Russia. When no quick victory occurred and as Assad’s brutality and Obama’s betrayals radicalized Syrians the effect 180 degrees opposite. Putin must see that the longer the Assad regime survives and the war continues, the greater the terrorist threat will become. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah can also see that can see that the rebels are winning, that Hezbollah is getting mauled, that the failure of Geneva will force other parties to arm the rebels, etc. Jarba must look like a piece of luck they hadn’t expected.

    • Jarba Really Impressed Russia Who May Now See Him As a Superior Alternative to Assad

      seriously, are you the official FSA distriburator for Captagon in Europe? and where can i buy some, it seems to be very strong stuff

      • The Russians badly want to get out of this war and limit further radicalization. Until now they’ve been stuck with The Man That Everyone Hates (totally unsuitable for that purpose).

        By comparison who hates Jarba, except for hard-line war criminals who need Assad to survive. Even most Alawites are as anxious as Putin to get out from under. They know for certain Assad isn’t the answer while Jarba is far more preferable, easily the best they can get and a train not to be missed. By comparison, the Assad Express is headed for a steep cliff and taking everyone with it.

  3. Syria Deeply’s analysis:
    Not shockingly, the regime has been slow to negotiate its own extinction.

    Even so, just the start of a process raises some notion of its end. As participants and observers look out on a long diplomatic road – talks pause on Friday, due to resume after a week – their practical focus is on the real factors that can change the state of play in Syria.

    By way of a turning point potentially on the horizon, there’s the notional presidential election, scheduled for July. Assad has hinted he would run for re-election; one former regime official tells us he’s just as likely to extend his term unilaterally for another two years, with the constitutional blessing of a parliament he comfortably controls. While diplomatic sources say his Syrian army is under significant strain, the flood of Shiite militias fighting on his behalf have shored up his military advantage, while a strategy of choosing his battles and outsourcing the fight to localized warlords is apparently working.

    So what could change the picture? The same former official says Iran and Syria are so closely aligned they functionally act as one unit. That leaves Russia to potentially change the equation. Russia still has significant influence in Damascus; the removal of its “political umbrella” would force the regime to change its position, and ultimately its composition.

    That means it’s little surprise that the opposition has started to take a more practical and conciliatory position towards Moscow. This week, the Wall Street Journal reports that Syria’s opposition is “trying to drive a wedge between the regime and its most powerful foreign backer,” by assuring Russia that its military and strategic interests would be maintained under any transitional government – respected in any future Syria. The former Syrian official described it as the requisite amount of “boot licking” that needs to be done, to win over the regime’s Russian patrons.

    The efforts may be working. Ahmed Jarba told the Journal “that he had received assurances from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Moscow wasn’t wedded to its longtime ally.” Russia has long said the same in private meetings; more holistically, what matters to Moscow is an alternative to Assad that meets their strategic needs. A Russian-friendly, Alawite-inclusive transitional government could be in the making, maintaining key institutions of the state and even holding over regime stalwarts who pull a vast array strings (like Ali Mamlouk, whose name comes up from many a Syria analyst). The thinking is that you can’t dismantle what currently exists; you can only decapitate it and remove the least palatable elements, to some cushy retirement in exile.

    That’s all in the realm of theory, but it’s the directional goal for Geneva talks and the more subtle meetings that happen around it.

  4. Survey of Syrian Attitudes Finds Both Sides Seek Peace, Unified Country
    Syria Deeply

    Polling veteran Craig Charney has launched a new report, Syrian Perspectives on Transitional Justice, looking at the views of Syrian civilians still living in the country.

    The survey’s main takeaways are that there is broad support on the ground for a negotiated settlement (but, like the diplomats meeting this week in Geneva, no consensus on the future role of Assad), strong support on both the pro-regime and pro-opposition sides for postwar accountability for abuses, and weak support for the Syrian National Coalition, with mixed views of Jabhat al-Nusra.

    Craig Charney and his firm Charney Research presented the results at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Here, he weighs in on the difficulties of ground research in today’s Syria, and how the findings surprised his team.

  5. Nobody thinks that the Geneva negotiations will bring peace right away.

    But if America and Europe are serious about helping Syria, they should arm the rebels fighting the regime.

    he Geneva gathering cannot drain such an ocean of suffering and wrongdoing. It is built on the premise that Mr Assad will relinquish power through a transitional government.

    But why should he? He believes he is winning. He is holding his own against rebel attacks, or even gaining territory.

    He set out to radicalise the rebels, releasing jihadists from his jails early in the conflict. This programme has been so successful that Western voters now think the rebels are as vile as Mr Assad.

    As talks drag on, Russia and Iran will continue to boost Mr Assad’s socalled “strength”.

    The west should know that the rebels are on the front line against ISIS, whose sectarian poison threatens the entire region.

    If the regime is under pressure on the battlefield, it may be more willing to negotiate a proper ceasefire, or even, if people are tired of war, Assad’s departure. Moreover Iran can ill afford to finance a stalemate. When it has had enough of pouring money into Mr Assad’s seemingly endless conflict, it may be willing to argue for peace.

    The Brutality Assad has practised against his own people strengthens the case for trying to tip the balance of power against him. The best way to persuade his backers to withdraw their aid is if the West puts money on the table, too.

    • Geneva, combined with rebel attacks on ISIS and evidence of regime-ISIS collaboration, has totally undermined the regime’s claim that the rebels were “all terrorists” and that the regime was doing the West a favor by “fighting terror.” What has become apparent is that the regime has aided terror both by intent or by radicalizing Syrias via endless brutality.

      In Geneva the regime showed its true face to the world: arrogant, brutal, untrustworthy and mendacious. No one was impressed and many were appalled.

  6. another carbombing in lebanon.

    funny that the media reports, bombing of frontline aleppo areas ( in a country that is in war ) as an attack on civilians, but a carbomb in lebanon targeting a petrol station is an attack in a hezbollah stronghold.

    funniest thing is this happened on the same day. Totally different interpretations.

    • A car bomb in Lebanon gets no more sympathy than a car bomb in the heart of Damascus. In both cases brutal perps have brought in on themselves. Showing no mercy for civilians, these guys cry when they get the tiniest dose of their own medicine.

      • can i say the same for the civilians that willingly stay in the AQ part of Aleppo and then cry when bombs fall on their areas, filled with fighters.

        oh no that is a world wide tragedy.

        at the end of the day, harbouring cannibals, makes you complicit doesnt it?

        • Hezzbollah is crossing a border to go into a foreign country and kill civilians because of sectarian based orders from Iran.

          It is very hard to feel sorry for them.


    Given the way the tide is suddenly turning, these victories must occur quickly because they may be impossible later.

    BEST SHOT: Yabrud (perhaps not easy or quick).

    A POSSIBILITY: Some gains in Aleppo assisted by ISIS-Al Queda. But such gains must come quickly before new weapons for rebel make it impossible. They’d also be hard to sustain for same reason

    LITTLE CHANCE: Damascus & further south and the area north of Hama.


    1. The war with Al Queda (ISIS) will eventually deprive the regime of a major ally and Fifth Column.

    2. The regime’s #1 propaganda success (convincing gullible outsiders it is fighting “terrorists’ synomous with rebels) has suffed fatal blows for three well-known reasons.

    3. For above reason and given esposure of massive regime-ISIS collaboration, rebels are likely to get massive inputs of aid from new sources. It has already started. Any sign of ISIS/regime success will only increase the quantiy and quality of weapons headed to the rebels.

    4. Russia appears close to dumping Assad and if Putin does, Hezbollah may have no choice but to withdraw.
    Mounting casualties plus more blowback in Lebanon will add to withdrawal motives.

    5. Given all the above, Assad can’t expect replacements for any foreign fighters and he must have them to sustain present endangered locales.

  8. “It was utter lunacy.”

    ““The regime says now that they accept the communique and they want to implement it, but of course they have a reading that is perhaps different than other people, and they repeat every day that the problem is terrorism,” Brahimi said. “The government thinks they can win.”

    Anne Marie Slaughter, former State Department official, compared the international attitude toward the plight of Syrian citizens to the international community’s failure to stop the atrocities in the Holocaust during World War II.

    “In the United States we often ask, ‘Why didn’t Roosevelt bomb the trains?” she said. “We aren’t very different.”

    “”At one point Brahimi told Jaafari he would not tolerate any insult to any faith in the negotiations and that Jaafari’s comments bordered on blasphemy. Jaafari wouldn’t quit, so that negotiation session abruptly ended.””

    It was surely a fault of the Syrian regime delegation that they haven`t brought a torturer with them to geneve. Without torturer the Syrian regime delegation seems to be somehow helpless


    #1: A retaliatory car bombing killed five and wounded ten in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley though it is hardly a fair exchange for Hezbollah’s daily shelling of Syrian Sunnis. A spokesman moaned, “The security situation in the country is unstable and worsening day by day.” Just like Syria, right? Hezbollah’s position is “I can hit you but it’s unfair if you hit me back.”

    #2: Using social networks to stir things up, a nightmare has returned for Hezbollah and its supporters in Lebanon. Hammering away at “Hezbollah’s criminality in Syria, Sheik Ahmad Al Assir is seen as the uncompromising defender of the Sunni people at a time when they need one.

    • hmm isnt this sheik assir, wanted by the lebanese government for being a terrorist?

      no big wonder he supports the syrian rebels.

      How many people did his fanatics kill in Sidon last year?

      • If you listen to the Assad government anyone who opposes it is “a terrorist.” That includes the pro-democracy sign makers at Kanfrabel. The regime is the biggest terrorist but uses the term they way Senator Joe McCarthy accused anyone who disagreed with him of being a communist. As for your third question, I wish the answer was 125,000 plus to match what Hezbollah and pals have done in Syria.

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