Photo: Islamic State of Iraq Try To Win Hearts and Minds With Ramadan Aid Campaign

In a recent blog post, Michael Neumann discusses the issue of extremist Islamists in the Syrian conflict, and asks to what extent the picture, increasingly painted by Western media, that factions like the Islamic State of Iraq and Ash Sham have “taken over” the insurgency is accurate.

Neumann presents what he describes as a “more optimistic view”, noting that:

The threat of extreme Islamists certainly is dire and real. While it is absurd to say they’re “as bad as Assad” – even after the Latakia massacre, their atrocities are episodic, not a constant horror – they’re bad enough. What’s exaggerated is their prospects. They will never rule Syria and they will never establish enclaves in Syria. Extreme or extremely conservative Islam may conceivably come to dominate Syria, but that’s a very different sort of danger, and cause only for a very different sort of concern.

Neumann goes on to say that, in his view, there is “no chance at all that extremists could prevail over their opponents”.

For this to happen, of course, Assad would have to fall. Their opponents would then be not just the more moderate Syrian revolutionaries, but every power, great and small, with an interest in the region. Russia and China would be on the same side as the secularist and moderate revolutionaries. So would all Kurdish factions. Jordan, the Gulf States and Israel would be united in their determination to eradicate the radical Islamist spectre. So would Turkey, now with a much freer hand, because the substantial pro-Assad opposition would now be on-side. So would the West. So would Hezbollah and the Maronites, all but choking off any support from within Lebanon. The extremists’ only source of supply would be within Western Iraq. Iran, having lost its Syrian ally and no longer capable of maintaining Hezbollah as a militarily robust proxy, would focus on strengthening the Iraqi government, its sole remaining foothold in the Arab world. In short, the extremists would not only be isolated, but surrounded by forces determined to crush them, with the enthusiastic support of both the West and the East. The idea that the extremists could, in these circumstances, hold territory, is a non-starter.

Neumann argues that extremist factions could not prevail militarily in Syria. Rather, they would need to win over Syrians’ hearts and minds:

“(The Islamist threat) will depend on its powers of persuasion, on its political and social strength. The extreme Islamists will have this sort of strength for three reasons. First, it appears that quite a few Syrians in fact adhere to a very conservative version of Islam, and might be receptive to the idea of a very strict Islamist rĂ©gime, particularly given the shameful record of secularism in the region. Second, like it or not, the extreme Islamist combattants are, for the most part, heroes. They fight bravely and effectively and have saved far more innocent lives than they have taken. Their martyrs often sacrificed their lives when no one else could or did stand up to Assad’s onslaughts. This won’t be forgotten. Third, extreme Islamist groups, despite their repressive bent, often do much good in the areas the control, restoring basic services and supplying both public order and the necessities of life. In this respect they resemble the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, who became powerful partly by helping those in need.

Read the full article here.