4 COMMENTS

  1. THE TIME REQUIRED TO TAKE DAMASCUS CAN BE SHORTENED FROM YEARS TO MONTHS BY EXPLOITING WHAT REBELS DO BEST IN TWO PLACES WHERE THEY’VE SHOWN SUCCESS

    EA maintains (and I agree) that rebels lack the tools required to take the core of major cities without prolonged fighting that could take years. We’d also agree that rebels excel at nibbling away on the periphery, It is axiomatic in warfare that one should concentrate on what you do best and avoid playing into what the enemy’s strength. Nationally, the rebels are making gains since applying that axiom–launching as many multiple offensives as possible to stretch a manpower short regime. In Damascus they must find a way to apply the principle.

    Looking at the admitted strengths and weaknesses of both sides, a mass frontal assault by the rebels would do the enemy a favor–although some assault is essential to tying down substantial numbers of regime forces required to defend what it cannot afford to lose.

    A concentrated rebel effort to seize two suburbs where they’ve already enjoyed some success (Daraya) or have made major advances recently (the Adra area) could shut the regime off from Lebanon (via a major highway to the west near Daraya) and from Homs, Hama and the coast (via Adra). This seems far more do-able than the alternative. The south (pretty much in rebel hands already) and and the east (highly vulnerable and much less strategic) are less of a concern.

    For a fuller analysis see my Syria roundup today (link below). A subopost looks at the regeime’s predicamen should such a cutoff succeed, weighing obstacles to a breakout. If the latter could success, the regime would be forced out of Damascus beyond any possibility of return. Many military and government assets would have to left behind.

    http://iranian.com/posts/view/post/19376

  2. LEAKED VIDEO OF TWO DRUNK SHABIHA MOCKING ASSAD IS A REAL GEM

    Anyone who has seen the German movie, “Downfall,” about events in the bunker on the final days of the Third Reich will recognize the signs of hysteria and demoralization. This video bears an uncanny resemblance to a scene in that outstanding film. If you can see their faces clearly, so can their superiors. These guys are screwed! Being shabiha, they dare not surrender to the rebels. Yet they’ll face execution from brown nosing superiors eager to demonstrate loyalty.

    Best bet: Hide those bottles, make up a big sign with the words, “$#%& Assad!”pinned to their chest, shout the same, raise a white flag and hope amused rebels given them a break.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Uacc9Jrz2PU

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